Welcome to the MLB betting model projections and predictions! Today we are focusing on the Rays vs Guardians prediction. This prediction is made by my private MLB betting model, which has earned more than 40 units in just 4 months, outperforming the closing line over 70% of the time with high-value best MLB bets, beating the line over 90% of the time with a positive CLV of +4.52%.

Betting Odds

The betting odds for the game scheduled on September 2, 2023, at Progressive Field are set as follows:

  • Tampa Bay Rays: -110 (1.91)
  • Cleveland Guardians: 101 (2.01)

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Team Performance Analysis

Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have played 135 games with an impressive R/G (runs per game) of 5.33, ranking 4th in the league. Their performance in other key areas includes:

  • HR (Home Runs): 194, Rank: 5
  • RBI (Runs Batted In): 690, Rank: 5
  • SB (Stolen Bases): 141, Rank: 3
  • BA (Batting Average): 0.259, Rank: 6
  • OBP (On-base Percentage): 0.331, Rank: 4
  • SLG (Slugging Percentage): 0.446, Rank: 4
  • OPS (On-base Plus Slugging): 0.777, Rank: 4
  • OPS+ (On-base Plus Slugging adjusted): 114, Rank: 100

In comparison to the league averages:

  • R/G League Average: 4.602
  • HR Total League Average: 162.73
  • RBI League Average: 595.7
  • SB League Average: 95.57
  • BA League Average: 0.2485
  • OBP League Average: 0.3197
  • SLG League Average: 0.4139
  • OPS League Average: 0.7339
  • OPS+ League Average: 99.93

Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians, on the other hand, have also played 135 games but with a significantly lower R/G of 4.06, placing them 27th in the league. Their stats in other key areas are:

  • HR: 103, Rank: 31
  • RBI: 511, Rank: 29
  • SB: 114, Rank: 8
  • BA: 0.248, Rank: 17
  • OBP: 0.31, Rank: 25
  • SLG: 0.38, Rank: 28
  • OPS: 0.69, Rank: 28
  • OPS+: 93, Rank: 100

Pitching Analysis

For this game, the starting pitchers will be Zack Littell for the Tampa Bay Rays and Logan Allen for the Cleveland Guardians.

Zack Littell (Tampa Bay Rays)

  • Hand: Right
  • Wins: 3
  • Losses: 3
  • Games Started: 9
  • ERA (Earned Run Average): 3.92
  • K/9 (Strikeouts per 9 innings): 7.4
  • BB/9 (Walks per 9 innings): 0.65
  • WHIP (Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched): 1.09
  • xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching): 4.1
  • xERA (Expected ERA): 0.85
  • GB/FB (Ground Ball/Fly Ball ratio): 4.09
  • SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA): 4.09

Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians)

  • Hand: Right
  • Wins: 6
  • Losses: 7
  • Games Started: 20
  • ERA: 3.61
  • K/9: 8.55
  • BB/9: 3.44
  • WHIP: 1.35
  • xFIP: 4.3
  • xERA: 4.27
  • GB/FB: 1.13
  • SIERA: 4.49

Bullpen Rankings

Out of 30 teams, the bullpen rankings are:

  • Tampa Bay Rays: 21
  • Cleveland Guardians: 18

MLB Betting Model Prediction (Full Game)

Based on my MLB betting model predictions and betting analysis, the full game moneyline value is on the Tampa Bay Rays. The projected MLB model win percentages and odds are:

  • Tampa Bay Rays: 58.43%, Projected US odds: -141, Projected decimal odds: 1.71
  • Cleveland Guardians: 41.56%, Projected US odds: 141, Projected decimal odds: 2.41

The projected over/under for total runs for the full game is 9.32.

Therefore, the full game moneyline value and the first half betting value are both on the Tampa Bay Rays.

AI Prediction

In addition to the MLB betting model, I have used an AI model, which is independent of my MLB betting model. The AI prediction is based on all the available stats provided and compared to sportsbook odds.

Bookies odds:

  • Tampa Bay Rays: -110 (1.91)
  • Cleveland Guardians: 101 (2.01)

Based on the available stats and sportsbook odds, the AI prediction also suggests that the value is on the Tampa Bay Rays.

Conclusion

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In summary, both my MLB betting model and the AI prediction suggest that the value for the Rays vs Guardians game is on the Tampa Bay Rays. Good luck with your bets!

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