Get ready for a thrilling MLB showdown as the Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face off on April 14, 2023.
With both teams showcasing their talented right-handed pitchers, this is a game you won’t want to miss. Read on for our Rays vs Blue Jays prediction and in-depth analysis, as we dive into the pitching matchups, bullpen stats, and more.
- Date: April 14, 2023
- Time: 7:07 PM ET
- Venue: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
- Rays: -132
- Blue Jays: +122
- Over Under: 9.5
Last Meeting: March 19, 2023
In their last encounter, Tampa Bay narrowly edged out Toronto with a 1-0 victory.
Pitching Matchup: Drew Rasmussen vs Jose Berrios
Tampa Bay’s right-hander Drew Rasmussen (2-0, 0.00 ERA) is set to take on Toronto’s right-hander Jose Berrios (0-2, 11.17) in Friday’s face-off. Rasmussen has had a fair share of success against Toronto, holding a 1-3 record and a 2.33 ERA in eight career outings (seven starts). On the other hand, Berrios has a 1-4 record with a 5.86 ERA in eight career starts against the Rays.
Season Stats: Rasmussen and Berrios
Rasmussen has had an impressive start to the season, boasting a 2-0 record with 13 innings pitched (averaging 6.5 per start) and 15 strikeouts. His WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched) is currently at 0.231.
Meanwhile, Berrios’ season hasn’t started as smoothly, with an 0-2 record, 9.7 innings pitched (averaging 4.8 per start), 12 strikeouts, and 3 walks. He has allowed one home run so far, and his WHIP matches Rasmussen’s at 0.231.
When it comes to bullpen stats, Tampa Bay holds the advantage with a 2.23 ERA. In contrast, Toronto’s bullpen has a slightly higher ERA of 3.33.
With this information in hand, we’re all set to dive into the second part of our MLB predictions, focusing on the Rays vs Blue Jays hitting matchup.
Rays vs Blue Jays Prediction – Analyzing Hitting, Betting Model, and Trends
Hitting Stats Comparison:
When comparing the hitting stats, we see the following:
- Tampa Bay Rays: 7.7 runs per game, .286 batting average, .359 OBP, 8.3 runs vs right-handed pitchers
- Toronto Blue Jays: 5.6 runs per game, .289 batting average, .345 OBP, 5.7 runs vs right-handed pitchers, 6.5 runs per game at home
MLB Betting Model Prediction
My MLB prediction model suggests a 57.16% chance for the Toronto Blue Jays to win, and a 42.84% chance for the Tampa Bay Rays. When converting these probabilities into odds, we get projected betting odds of Rays +133 and Blue Jays -133.
According to the MLB prediction model, there’s value in betting on the Blue Jays. The difference in probabilities results in a positive expected value (+EV) on the Blue Jays. Sportsbooks offer odds of +122 on Toronto, making them the underdog in this matchup. However, my betting model views the Blue Jays as a slight favorite.
Rays vs Blue Jays Prediction and Recommended MLB Pick
The Tampa Bay Rays have been on an impressive winning streak, boasting a 13-0 run this season. However, it’s worth noting that their recent opponents, including Boston, Oakland, Washington, and Detroit, are all below-average teams.
The Rays will now face the 8-4 Toronto Blue Jays, who have only lost two of their last nine games. After losing their previous game against Detroit, the Blue Jays will be eager to bounce back.
Although the Rays managed to sweep the Boston Red Sox in their last series, their victory came down to one extraordinary inning where they scored seven runs. Until that moment, the game could have gone either way.
Taking into account all the available information and my MLB prediction model, the Rays seem slightly overrated in this matchup, considering the odds offered by the betting market.
Recommended Best Bet: Toronto Blue Jays +122
To maximize profits, it’s essential to shop around for the best lines and leverage any advantages offered by sportsbooks.
Always remember to play responsibly and never follow anyone blindly. Conduct your research before placing bets, and learn how sports betting works, as well as how to use numbers in betting, before risking any money.
Interesting Betting Trends
It’s crucial to remember that betting trends have little to no predictive power when making MLB predictions. They should be taken with caution. Betting trends can, however, reveal interesting angles. Please read this blog post about betting trends to learn more.
The Rays have struggled on the road lately versus RHP back to the last season, with a 2-8 record in their last 10 away games vs RHP. Additionally, the Rays’ performance against teams with winning records has been underwhelming, as they have won only 1 of their last 5 games against such opponents.
On the other hand, the Blue Jays have been strong at home, winning 4 of their last 5 games when facing a right-handed starter. They also have an impressive track record in the opening game of a series, boasting a 20-7 record in their last 27 series openers.
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