Rays vs Blue Jays Prediction

Our MLB betting model for the Rays vs Blue Jays Prediction gives the Tampa Bay Rays a 55.44% chance of winning against the Toronto Blue Jays on May 19, 2024. With Aaron Civale starting for the Rays, our model projects a slight edge over Alek Manoah and the Blue Jays. Bet smart with the Rays at -115.


Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

As we gear up for an exciting matchup on Sunday, May 19, 2024, between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays, bettors and fans alike are eager to see how this game will unfold. With the first pitch set to be thrown at Rogers Centre, this Rays vs Blue Jays Prediction aims to provide you with a comprehensive analysis to guide your betting decisions.

Sportsbook Odds

  • Away Team: Tampa Bay Rays
  • Decimal Odds: 1.87
  • US Odds: -115
  • Home Team: Toronto Blue Jays
  • Decimal Odds: 1.95
  • US Odds: -105

Odds are subject to change, so always check multiple sportsbooks for the best MLB odds before placing your bets.

MB MLB 728x90 Jpg

Starting Pitchers: Aaron Civale vs. Alek Manoah

Aaron Civale (Tampa Bay Rays)

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 5.83

Alek Manoah (Toronto Blue Jays)

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 4.91

Advanced MLB Stats Comparison

When comparing the advanced metrics of both starting pitchers, several key statistics stand out:

Aaron Civale

  • SIERA: 3.54
  • xFIP: 3.46
  • K/9: 9.52
  • BB/9: 2.33
  • WHIP: 1.32
  • GB/FB: 0.8
  • xERA: 3.61

Aaron Civale has demonstrated a solid ability to manage contact and limit walks, which is reflected in his SIERA of 3.54 and xFIP of 3.46. His strikeout rate (K/9) of 9.52 is quite competitive, and his walk rate (BB/9) of 2.33 suggests good control.

Alek Manoah

  • SIERA: 3.94
  • xFIP: 3.86
  • K/9: 9.82
  • BB/9: 4.09
  • WHIP: 1.36
  • GB/FB: 1.4
  • xERA: 4.75

Alek Manoah, on the other hand, has a slightly higher SIERA and xFIP, indicating he might be more susceptible to giving up runs than Civale. His strikeout rate is slightly higher at 9.82 K/9, but his walk rate of 4.09 BB/9 is a concern, as it suggests he may struggle with command.

Bullpen Matchup

  • Tampa Bay Rays: 23rd in MLB
  • Toronto Blue Jays: 26th in MLB

Both teams have struggled with bullpen performance, ranking in the lower third of the league. This could lead to a higher-scoring game if either starting pitcher exits early.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Overall Rank: 12th
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 15th
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 13th

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Overall Rank: 20th
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 19th
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 23rd

The Rays have a more potent offense, especially against right-handed pitchers, which could give them an edge considering both starters are righties.

Rays vs Blue Jays Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

Based on our MLB betting model, here is the probability breakdown for the Rays vs Blue Jays Prediction:

  • Tampa Bay Rays (Aaron Civale): 55.44%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: -124
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 1.80
  • Toronto Blue Jays (Alek Manoah): 44.56%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: 124
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 2.24

Recommended MLB Pick

Our MLB betting model suggests the following pick based on the current odds and probabilities:

  • Side: Tampa Bay Rays
  • Pitcher: Aaron Civale
  • Odds: -115
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.42
  • Confidence: Tiny value

Conclusion: Rays vs Blue Jays Prediction

This Rays vs Blue Jays Prediction analysis points towards the Tampa Bay Rays having a slight edge, thanks to Aaron Civale’s advanced stats and the Rays’ stronger offensive capabilities. However, always shop for the best MLB betting odds and take advantage of promotions during the betting season. To bet like a pro, analytically with sports betting models, check out our sports betting courses.

For final best MLB bets and first-half picks, please visit our “MLB Picks” page or access our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets to learn how to calculate odds and make your own projections.

Access my free content and join exclusive, private email circle for strategic advice, personal stories, and expert tips.

No spam. Betting value only.