Rangers vs Phillies Prediction

For the Rangers vs Phillies Prediction on May 21, 2024, our MLB betting model shows the Phillies with a 67.37% win probability. Ranger Suarez’s strong stats and Phillies’ superior offense make them the favored pick. Bet confidently on the Phillies at -169 odds for good value.


Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Rangers vs Phillies Prediction: On Tuesday, May 21, 2024, the Texas Rangers will face off against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. This matchup promises to be an exciting one, with two standout pitchers taking the mound. For those looking to place bets, here are the current sportsbook odds:

  • Away Team: Texas Rangers
  • Decimal Odds: 2.32
  • US Odds: +132
  • Home Team: Philadelphia Phillies
  • Decimal Odds: 1.59
  • US Odds: -169

Note that odds can change, so always check for the best MLB odds across different sportsbooks.

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Starting Pitchers

Jon Gray – Texas Rangers

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 2.15

Ranger Suarez – Philadelphia Phillies

  • Hand: Left-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 1.37

Advanced MLB Stats Comparison

When comparing Jon Gray and Ranger Suarez, several advanced MLB statistics highlight their performances:

  • SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA)
  • Jon Gray: 3.73
  • Ranger Suarez: 2.77
  • xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching)
  • Jon Gray: 3.61
  • Ranger Suarez: 2.72
  • K/9 (Strikeouts per 9 innings)
  • Jon Gray: 8.58
  • Ranger Suarez: 8.85
  • BB/9 (Walks per 9 innings)
  • Jon Gray: 2.5
  • Ranger Suarez: 1.53
  • WHIP (Walks plus Hits per Inning Pitched)
  • Jon Gray: 1.21
  • Ranger Suarez: 0.76
  • GB/FB (Ground Ball to Fly Ball ratio)
  • Jon Gray: 1.2
  • Ranger Suarez: 2.27
  • xERA (Expected ERA)
  • Jon Gray: Not Provided
  • Ranger Suarez: 2.3

Ranger Suarez shows a slight edge in several categories, particularly in WHIP and BB/9, indicating his strong control and ability to limit base runners.

Rangers vs Phillies Prediction

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

  • Texas Rangers: Ranked 27th
  • Philadelphia Phillies: Ranked 4th

The Phillies have a significant advantage in bullpen performance, which could play a crucial role in the later innings of the game.

Offensive Matchup Analysis

Overall Offensive Rankings

  • Texas Rangers: Ranked 18th overall
  • Philadelphia Phillies: Ranked 8th overall

Performance Against Left-Handed Pitchers

  • Texas Rangers: Ranked 22nd
  • Philadelphia Phillies: Ranked 10th

Performance Against Right-Handed Pitchers

  • Texas Rangers: Ranked 13th
  • Philadelphia Phillies: Ranked 8th

The Phillies have a stronger overall offense and perform better against both left-handed and right-handed pitchers compared to the Rangers.

MLB Betting Model Probability

Our MLB betting model provides the following probabilities for the Rangers vs Phillies Prediction:

  • Texas Rangers (Jon Gray): 32.63%
  • MLB Model Projected US odds: +207
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal odds: 3.07
  • Philadelphia Phillies (Ranger Suarez): 67.37%
  • MLB Model Projected US odds: -206
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal odds: 1.48

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our MLB betting model analysis, the recommended pick is:

  • Side: Philadelphia Phillies
  • Pitcher: Ranger Suarez
  • Odds: -169
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 1.21
  • Confidence: Good Value

Conclusion: Rangers vs Phillies Prediction

For our Rangers vs Phillies Prediction, we recommend considering the Phillies as the stronger pick, given their superior pitching, bullpen, and offensive stats. However, always use the Rangers vs Phillies Prediction as a guide and never follow any sports picks blindly. Always shop for the best MLB Baseball Betting Odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions. If you want to learn how to bet analytically with sports betting models, check out our sports betting courses.

For the latest best MLB bets and first-half picks, please check the “MLB Picks” page or get our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets to learn how to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections.

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