Pirates vs Phillies Prediction

In our MLB betting model analysis for the Pirates vs Phillies game, the Phillies with Cristopher Sanchez are slightly favored with a 55.69% win probability. However, the Pirates present a solid value pick at +142, with a betting model probability of 44.31%. Consider the underdog for a potential upset.


This Pirates vs Phillies prediction delves deep into the match-up slated for April 12, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia. With the Pittsburgh Pirates fielding Bailey Falter against the Philadelphia Phillies’ Cristopher Sanchez, this game presents intriguing angles for MLB bettors. We will explore the pitching, bullpen, and offensive matchups to provide a comprehensive betting analysis.

Game Details and Odds

  • Date: Friday, April 12, 2024
  • Venue: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia
  • Teams: Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies
  • Starting Pitchers: Bailey Falter (Pirates) vs Cristopher Sanchez (Phillies)
  • Decimal Odds: Pirates 2.42, Phillies 1.60
  • US Odds: Pirates +142, Phillies -167

Key Betting Information

Always verify the latest odds and check various sportsbooks for the best possible returns on your bets.

Pitching Matchup Analysis

Bailey Falter: Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 6.41
  • SIERA: 5.08
  • xFIP: 4.94
  • K/9: 5.92
  • BB/9: 2.59
  • WHIP: 1.48
  • GB/FB: 1.01

Cristopher Sanchez: Philadelphia Phillies

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 3.59
  • SIERA: 3.41
  • xFIP: 3.16
  • K/9: 8.69
  • BB/9: 1.67
  • WHIP: 1.11
  • GB/FB: 2.16

Bailey Falter’s higher ERA and WHIP suggest vulnerabilities that could be exploited by the Phillies’ hitters. In contrast, Sanchez’s stronger performance indicators, including a lower ERA and better strikeout rates, position him as the more stable choice.

Pirates vs Phillies Prediction

Bullpen and Offensive Matchups

Bullpen Ranks

  • Pittsburgh Pirates: 5
  • Philadelphia Phillies: 7

Offensive Comparison

  • Overall Rank:
  • Pirates: 11
  • Phillies: 23
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers:
  • Pirates: 2
  • Phillies: 16
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers:
  • Pirates: 15
  • Phillies: 30

The Pirates show strength against left-handed pitchers, which could challenge Sanchez despite his solid stats. However, the Phillies’ overall weaker offensive rank could limit their ability to capitalize on Falter’s less impressive metrics.

MLB Betting Model Analysis

Probability Estimates

  • Pittsburgh Pirates (Bailey Falter): 44.31% | Projected Odds: +126 (Decimal: 2.26)
  • Philadelphia Phillies (Cristopher Sanchez): 55.69% | Projected Odds: -126 (Decimal: 1.80)

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Moneyline Value: Pittsburgh Pirates
  • Pitcher: Bailey Falter
  • Odds: +142
  • Confidence: Solid value (Adjusted Kelly Criterion: 0.51)

Conclusion: Pirates vs Phillies Prediction

In this Pirates vs Phillies prediction, while the Phillies with Cristopher Sanchez are statistically favored, the value lies in a bet on the Pirates with Bailey Falter. The Pirates’ strong performance against lefties and the potential betting value indicated by our model suggest a compelling pick for MLB bettors. Remember to shop around for the best odds and consider using a strategic approach like the Kelly Criterion to manage your betting sizes. For a deeper dive into MLB betting strategies and personalized betting projections, explore our MLB Betting Model or join our sports betting courses. Always bet responsibly and enhance your wagering with informed decisions.

Access my free content and join exclusive, private email circle for strategic advice, personal stories, and expert tips.

No spam. Betting value only.