Pirates vs Phillies Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Philadelphia Phillies a 55.88% chance to win against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who hold a 44.12% probability. For detailed insights and strategic betting tips for the Pirates vs Phillies matchup on April 13, 2024, follow our predictions and optimize your betting choices.


In our focused breakdown for the upcoming Pirates vs Phillies prediction, we delve into the intricacies of a fascinating MLB clash set for April 13, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. With the Pittsburgh Pirates fielding Marco Gonzales and the Philadelphia Phillies countering with Spencer Turnbull, betting enthusiasts are keenly observing the odds and matchups. The Pirates, currently underdogs with odds of +132, face off against the favored Phillies at -141.

Game Overview: Key Stats and Odds

Sportsbook Odds

  • Pittsburgh Pirates: 2.32 (Decimal), +132 (US)
  • Philadelphia Phillies: 1.71 (Decimal), -141 (US)

Starting Pitchers Comparison

Marco Gonzales (Pittsburgh Pirates)

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 4.72
  • SIERA: 5.1
  • xFIP: 4.75
  • K/9: 5.9
  • BB/9: 2.95
  • WHIP: 1.38
  • GB/FB Ratio: 1.16

Spencer Turnbull (Philadelphia Phillies)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 5.36
  • SIERA: 4.49
  • xFIP: 4.42
  • K/9: 7.93
  • BB/9: 3.43
  • WHIP: 1.38
  • GB/FB Ratio: 1.62

Analytical Deep Dive: Bullpen and Offensive Matchups

Bullpen Performance

  • Pittsburgh Pirates: Ranked 5th
  • Philadelphia Phillies: Ranked 3rd

Offensive Capabilities

  • Overall Rank
  • Pirates: 14th
  • Phillies: 21st
  • Against Left-Handed Pitchers
  • Pirates: 8th
  • Phillies: 14th
  • Against Right-Handed Pitchers
  • Pirates: 15th
  • Phillies: 29th

MLB Betting Model Insights

Probability Analysis

  • Pittsburgh Pirates (Marco Gonzales): 44.12%, Projected odds +127 (US), 2.27 (Decimal)
  • Philadelphia Phillies (Spencer Turnbull): 55.88%, Projected odds -127 (US), 1.79 (Decimal)

Recommended MLB Pick

Moneyline Value and Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates (Marco Gonzales) at +132. Despite being the underdogs, our model sees a tiny value in backing the Pirates, driven by the adjusted Kelly Criterion which shows a calculated value of 0.18 with a tiny confidence level.

Pirates vs Phillies Prediction

Conclusion: Pirates vs Phillies Prediction

Utilize this Pirates vs Phillies prediction as a guide, but remember, successful betting requires more than following picks. Always compare the latest odds across sportsbooks, factor in any available bonuses and promotions, and consider using analytical tools and sports betting models to refine your strategy. For those looking to enhance their betting acumen, consider exploring our sports betting courses. Make informed decisions and bet wisely!

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