Pirates vs Mets Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the New York Mets a 62.82% chance of winning against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Projected odds favor the Mets at -169. Analyzing the pitcher matchup and bullpen strength, the Mets stand out, making them a solid pick for this game. Always confirm odds before betting.


In our Pirates vs Mets prediction for the exciting matchup on Wednesday, April 17, 2024, we delve into a comprehensive analysis of this game scheduled at Citi Field. With starting pitchers Bailey Falter for the Pittsburgh Pirates facing off against Luis Severino of the New York Mets, this game promises some intriguing dynamics.

Game Information and Betting Odds

Overview of Teams and Odds

  • Away Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
  • Home Team: New York Mets
  • Location: Citi Field

Sportsbook Odds

  • Decimal Odds: Pirates – 2.12 | Mets – 1.76
  • US Odds: Pirates +112 | Mets -132

Note: Odds are subject to change. Always check for the best MLB odds across different sportsbooks.

Pitching Matchup Analysis

Bailey Falter vs. Luis Severino: A Closer Look

Bailey Falter (Pittsburgh Pirates)

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 6.12
  • SIERA: 5.00
  • xFIP: 4.82
  • K/9: 5.88
  • BB/9: 2.42
  • WHIP: 1.44
  • GB/FB Ratio: 1.06

Luis Severino (New York Mets)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 5.89
  • SIERA: 4.61
  • xFIP: 4.63
  • K/9: 8.27
  • BB/9: 3.43
  • WHIP: 1.58
  • GB/FB Ratio: 1.21

Bullpen and Offensive Matchup

Bullpen Strength

  • Pittsburgh Pirates: Ranked 7th
  • New York Mets: Ranked 1st

Team Offense

  • Overall Rank: Pirates – 17 | Mets – 13
  • Against Left-Handed Pitchers: Pirates – 16 | Mets – 5
  • Against Right-Handed Pitchers: Pirates – 14 | Mets – 18
Pirates vs Mets Prediction

MLB Betting Model Insights

Probability and Projected Odds

  • Pittsburgh Pirates: 37.18% probability | Projected Odds: +169 (Decimal: 2.69)
  • New York Mets: 62.82% probability | Projected Odds: -169 (Decimal: 1.59)

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: New York Mets to win
  • Pitcher: Luis Severino
  • Odds: -132
  • Value: 1.39 (Good Value)
  • Confidence: Good

Conclusion: Pirates vs Mets Prediction

In conclusion, our detailed analysis supports a strong position for the New York Mets in this matchup, particularly given Severino’s superior strikeout ability and the Mets’ robust bullpen. Remember, our Pirates vs Mets prediction is to provide insight, not to dictate your betting choices. Always ensure to shop for the best odds, and consider all available promotions during the MLB season. For those keen on refining their betting strategies, consider exploring our advanced sports betting courses available online.

For further details and updates, visit the “MLB Picks” page or access our comprehensive MLB Betting Model available on Google Sheets.

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