Pirates vs Brewers Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Milwaukee Brewers a 62.16% probability of winning against the Pittsburgh Pirates. With projected odds at -164 for the Brewers, our analysis indicates strong value in backing Milwaukee in this matchup. Always confirm odds before placing bets for the best returns.


In the upcoming MLB clash on May 13, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates, led by Mitch Keller, will face off against the Milwaukee Brewers with Chris Flexen on the mound at American Family Field. This “Pirates vs Brewers prediction” aims to provide a detailed analysis of the pitchers, team offenses, and bullpen performances to forecast the game’s outcome. Let’s delve into the statistics and betting odds to outline the best betting opportunities.

Game Overview

Teams and Odds

  • Away Team: Pittsburgh Pirates | Decimal Odds: 2.17 | US Odds: +117
  • Home Team: Milwaukee Brewers | Decimal Odds: 1.79 | US Odds: -127

Starting Pitchers

  • Pittsburgh Pirates: Mitch Keller (Right-Handed Pitcher, ERA: 4.41)
  • Milwaukee Brewers: Chris Flexen (Right-Handed Pitcher, ERA: 4.91)

Always verify these odds with multiple sportsbooks to ensure you’re getting the best value.

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Pitching Matchup Analysis

Mitch Keller’s Pitching Metrics:

  • SIERA: 4.03
  • xFIP: 3.85
  • K/9: 8.08
  • BB/9: 2.94
  • WHIP: 1.33
  • GB/FB: 1.33
  • xERA: 4.64

Chris Flexen’s Pitching Metrics:

  • SIERA: 5.04
  • xFIP: 5.07
  • K/9: 6.44
  • BB/9: 3.68
  • WHIP: 1.36
  • GB/FB: 0.68

Mitch Keller shows a stronger command in strikeouts and a better ground ball to fly ball ratio compared to Chris Flexen, indicating potentially fewer risky fly balls that could turn into home runs.

Bullpen Performance

  • Pittsburgh Pirates Bullpen Rank: 17th
  • Milwaukee Brewers Bullpen Rank: 19th

Despite being closely ranked, Pittsburgh’s bullpen has a slight edge over Milwaukee’s, which might be critical in the late innings of the game.

Offensive Matchup

Team Hitting Statistics

  • Pittsburgh Pirates:
  • Overall Rank: 26
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 14
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 30
  • Milwaukee Brewers:
  • Overall Rank: 3
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 24
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 2

Milwaukee’s offense is significantly more potent, especially against right-handed pitchers like Keller, which might prove to be a decisive factor in their favor.

Pirates vs Brewers Prediction

Betting Model Insights

Probabilities and Projected Odds

  • Pittsburgh Pirates (Mitch Keller):
  • Baseball Betting Model Probability: 37.84%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: +164
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 2.64
  • Milwaukee Brewers (Chris Flexen):
  • Baseball Betting Model Probability: 62.16%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: -164
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 1.61

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Side: Milwaukee Brewers
  • Pitcher: Chris Flexen
  • Odds: -127
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 1.43
  • Confidence: Good value

Our betting model and analysis suggest a strong value in backing the Milwaukee Brewers at these odds.

Conclusion: Pirates vs Brewers Prediction

This “Pirates vs Brewers prediction” has outlined the statistical insights and betting angles for this matchup. Remember, no prediction is guaranteed. Always shop for the best MLB baseball betting odds and consider promotions and bonuses. For those looking to delve deeper into sports betting analytics, consider exploring sports betting courses or models that can enhance your betting strategy. Remember, bet wisely and enjoy the game!

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