Pirates vs Braves Prediction

Our MLB betting model predicts a strong likelihood for the Atlanta Braves to win against the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 28, 2024. With Charlie Morton on the mound, the Braves have a 66.40% chance of victory. Bet on the Braves at -175 odds for solid value in this matchup.


Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

On Friday, June 28, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will face off against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park. This highly anticipated game features left-handed pitcher Martin Perez for the Pirates and right-handed pitcher Charlie Morton for the Braves. For bettors, this matchup presents a prime opportunity to delve into the numbers and make an informed Pirates vs Braves prediction.

TeamOdds (Decimal)Odds (US)Ballpark
Pittsburgh Pirates2.38138Truist Park
Atlanta Braves1.57-175Truist Park

Odds can change, so always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks before placing your bet.

Starting Pitchers: Martin Perez vs Charlie Morton

Pittsburgh Pirates: Martin Perez

  • Hand: Left-Handed
  • ERA: 4.71
  • SIERA: 4.48
  • xFIP: 4.43
  • K/9: 7.22
  • BB/9: 2.98
  • WHIP: 1.55
  • GB/FB: 1.1
  • xERA: 5.7

Martin Perez, a seasoned lefty, enters this game with an ERA of 4.71. His advanced stats suggest a slightly better performance, with a SIERA of 4.48 and an xFIP of 4.43, indicating some potential for improvement. Perez strikes out batters at a rate of 7.22 K/9 and maintains a respectable BB/9 of 2.98. However, his WHIP of 1.55 and xERA of 5.7 suggest challenges ahead against the Braves’ lineup.

Atlanta Braves: Charlie Morton

  • Hand: Right-Handed
  • ERA: 4.2
  • SIERA: 4.1
  • xFIP: 4.02
  • K/9: 9.08
  • BB/9: 3.97
  • WHIP: 1.3
  • GB/FB: 1.36
  • xERA: 4.4

Charlie Morton, the Braves’ right-handed ace, boasts an ERA of 4.2. His advanced metrics such as a SIERA of 4.1 and an xFIP of 4.02 support his strong pitching abilities. Morton’s K/9 of 9.08 and WHIP of 1.3 make him a formidable opponent for any lineup. Despite a slightly higher BB/9 of 3.97, Morton’s xERA of 4.4 indicates that he can manage to control the game’s pace effectively.

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Bullpen Matchup Analysis

  • Pittsburgh Pirates: Ranked 26th
  • Atlanta Braves: Ranked 7th

The bullpen matchup heavily favors the Atlanta Braves. With the Pirates’ bullpen ranked 26th and the Braves’ ranked 7th, the Braves have a significant edge in late-game pitching stability and performance.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

  • Pittsburgh Pirates:
  • Overall Rank: 27
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 26
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 27
  • Atlanta Braves:
  • Overall Rank: 14
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 11
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 20

The Atlanta Braves also hold an advantage in the hitting department. The Pirates rank poorly across the board, sitting at 27th overall, 26th against left-handed pitchers, and 27th against right-handed pitchers. Conversely, the Braves are 14th overall, with notable proficiency against lefties, ranking 11th.

Pirates vs Braves Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability for Pirates vs Braves Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the following probabilities for the game:

  • Pittsburgh Pirates (Martin Perez):
  • Probability: 33.59%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: 198
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 2.98
  • Atlanta Braves (Charlie Morton):
  • Probability: 66.40%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: -198
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 1.51

Recommended MLB Pick Based on Our Betting Model Analysis

Considering the advanced stats, bullpen strength, and hitting prowess, our MLB betting model recommends placing a bet on the Atlanta Braves. With Charlie Morton on the mound and the Braves’ superior overall and bullpen rankings, the model indicates solid value in this pick.

  • Recommended MLB PICK: Atlanta Braves
  • Pitcher: Charlie Morton
  • Odds: -175
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.75
  • Confidence: Solid value

Conclusion for Pirates vs Braves Prediction

Utilize this Pirates vs Braves prediction to guide your betting decisions, but always remember to shop for the best MLB baseball betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions. For those interested in learning how to bet like a pro, using analytical sports betting models, consider exploring my sports betting courses.

In conclusion, the Pirates vs Braves game on June 28, 2024, appears to favor the Braves, given their pitching, bullpen, and offensive advantages. However, baseball is an unpredictable sport, and anything can happen on game day. This prediction aims to provide a well-rounded analysis based on available data to help you make the most informed betting decision.

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