Phillies vs Reds Prediction April 25

In our “Phillies vs Reds Prediction,” the MLB betting model gives the Phillies a 55.63% chance to win with Zack Wheeler pitching, against the Reds’ 44.37% with Nick Martinez. This analysis suggests a closer game than odds indicate, pointing to potential value in backing the Reds at +137.


In this “Phillies vs Reds Prediction,” we delve into a compelling MLB matchup set to take place on Thursday, April 25, 2024, at the Great American Ball Park. The Philadelphia Phillies, with ace Zack Wheeler on the mound, will face the Cincinnati Reds, who counter with Nick Martinez. As we analyze their performances and various team metrics, this prediction aims to provide insights that go beyond the basic odds.

Game Details and Betting Odds


  • Date: April 25, 2024
  • Venue: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
  • Philadelphia Phillies Odds: -149 (Decimal: 1.67)
  • Cincinnati Reds Odds: +137 (Decimal: 2.37)

Note on Betting

Odds can fluctuate. Always verify the latest MLB odds across different sportsbooks to ensure the best possible bets.

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Pitching Matchup Analysis

Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia Phillies)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 2.30
  • SIERA: 2.65
  • xFIP: 2.64
  • K/9: 10.91
  • BB/9: 2.01
  • WHIP: 0.89
  • GB/FB Ratio: 1.71
  • xERA: 2.32

Nick Martinez (Cincinnati Reds)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 7.20
  • SIERA: 4.28
  • xFIP: 4.88
  • K/9: 8.10
  • BB/9: 1.80
  • WHIP: 1.60
  • GB/FB Ratio: 0.53


Zack Wheeler’s advanced metrics, such as a lower ERA, SIERA, and xFIP, coupled with higher strikeout rates and better control, demonstrate his dominance over Martinez. Wheeler’s ability to induce groundballs further strengthens the Phillies’ defensive game.

Bullpen and Offensive Matchup

Bullpen Rankings

  • Philadelphia Phillies: Ranked 11th
  • Cincinnati Reds: Ranked 13th

Offensive Comparison

  • Overall Rank:
  • Phillies: 20th
  • Reds: 25th
  • Rank vs. Left-Handed Pitchers:
  • Phillies: 10th
  • Reds: 16th
  • Rank vs. Right-Handed Pitchers:
  • Phillies: 25th
  • Reds: 24th
Phillies vs Reds Prediction

Betting Model and MLB Picks

Model Predictions

  • Philadelphia Phillies (Zack Wheeler) Probability: 55.63%
  • Projected US Odds: -125
  • Projected Decimal Odds: 1.80
  • Cincinnati Reds (Nick Martinez) Probability: 44.37%
  • Projected US Odds: +125
  • Projected Decimal Odds: 2.25

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: Cincinnati Reds (Moneyline)
  • Pitcher: Nick Martinez
  • Odds: +137
  • Kelly Criterion Value: 0.38 (Tiny Value)

Conclusion: Phillies vs Reds Prediction

When considering the “Phillies vs Reds Prediction” for your MLB betting strategy, it’s crucial to factor in both the statistical analysis and current market odds. While the Phillies appear stronger on paper, particularly with Wheeler at the helm, the odds suggest a closer contest, highlighted by the model’s support for a value pick on the Reds. Always shop for the best odds and consider using sports betting models and tools to enhance your understanding and betting accuracy. For more in-depth strategies and tips, explore our sports betting courses or the MLB betting model on Google Sheets.

Remember, while predictions provide a strategic framework, always ensure to place bets based on thorough analysis and personal judgment.

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