Phillies vs Reds Prediction

In our latest Phillies vs Reds prediction, the MLB betting model favors the Reds with a 55.24% probability of winning. The Phillies trail slightly at 44.76%. This close matchup suggests a thrilling game ahead, with the odds slightly tilting towards Cincinnati. Always check for the best odds before placing your bets.


In the upcoming Phillies vs Reds prediction for Wednesday, April 24, 2024, baseball enthusiasts will witness a fascinating pitcher’s duel between Spencer Turnbull of the Philadelphia Phillies and Nick Lodolo of the Cincinnati Reds at the Great American Ball Park. The odds favor the Reds slightly, but as every seasoned bettor knows, the devil is in the details. Let’s dive deep into the stats and strategies that could define this game.

Game Details

  • Date: Wednesday, April 24, 2024
  • Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, Ohio
  • Philadelphia Phillies Odds: 1.95 (Decimal), -105 (US)
  • Cincinnati Reds Odds: 1.83 (Decimal), -120 (US)
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Pitching Matchup Analysis

Spencer Turnbull (Philadelphia Phillies)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 1.23
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 3.45
  • xFIP: 3.38
  • K/9: 9
  • BB/9: 2.86
  • WHIP: 0.77
  • GB/FB: 1.5
  • xERA: 2.97

Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds)

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 0.75
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 2.01
  • xFIP: 2.28
  • K/9: 12
  • BB/9: 0.75
  • WHIP: 0.75
  • GB/FB: 1.33
  • xERA: 2.53

Bullpen and Offensive Matchups

Bullpen Rankings

  • Philadelphia Phillies: 11th
  • Cincinnati Reds: 16th

Offensive Comparison

  • Overall Ranking:
  • Phillies: 19th
  • Reds: 25th
  • Rank vs. Left-Handed Pitchers:
  • Phillies: 10th
  • Reds: 17th
  • Rank vs. Right-Handed Pitchers:
  • Phillies: 22nd
  • Reds: 25th
Phillies vs Reds Prediction

Betting Model Insights

Probability Analysis

  • Philadelphia Phillies (Turnbull): 44.76%, Projected Odds: +123 (Decimal: 2.23)
  • Cincinnati Reds (Lodolo): 55.24%, Projected Odds: -123 (Decimal: 1.81)

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: Cincinnati Reds to win
  • Pitcher: Nick Lodolo
  • Odds: -120
  • Kelly Criterion Value: 0.13 (Tiny Value)

Conclusion: Phillies vs Reds Prediction

In this Phillies vs Reds prediction, while the odds and our model slightly favor the Reds, the narrow margins and potent matchups suggest a closely contested game. Always ensure to shop around for the best odds, and consider using insights from detailed betting models to inform your decisions. Remember, never blindly follow any sports picks; use them as guidance to augment your understanding and strategies in MLB betting.

Final Thoughts

For those looking to refine their betting techniques or develop their own models, consider accessing detailed sports betting courses or tools like MLB betting models available online. Betting intelligently means staying informed and continuously learning, ensuring you make the most of every game during the MLB season.

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