Phillies vs Orioles Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Baltimore Orioles a 58.56% chance of defeating the Philadelphia Phillies on June 14, 2024. With Kyle Bradish on the mound, the Orioles are favored at -133 odds. Back the Orioles for a slight edge in this exciting matchup at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.


As we look forward to the exciting MLB matchup on Friday, June 14, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies will take on the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. This game features a pitching duel between the Phillies’ Ranger Suarez and the Orioles’ Kyle Bradish, promising a thrilling encounter. Our detailed Phillies vs Orioles prediction will analyze both teams’ strengths and weaknesses, giving you a comprehensive insight into this much-anticipated game.

Game Information and Sportsbook Odds

Before diving into the analysis, let’s take a look at the game information and current sportsbook odds. Always remember that odds can change, so it’s essential to check the best MLB odds across different sportsbooks.

  • Away Team: Philadelphia Phillies
  • Decimal Odds: 2.05
  • US Odds: 105
  • Home Team: Baltimore Orioles
  • Decimal Odds: 1.75
  • US Odds: -133
  • Ballpark: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
MB MLB 728x90 Jpg

Starting Pitchers: Ranger Suarez vs Kyle Bradish

Philadelphia Phillies – Ranger Suarez

Ranger Suarez, the left-handed pitcher for the Phillies, boasts an impressive ERA of 1.81. His advanced stats underline his efficiency on the mound:

  • SIERA: 2.87
  • xFIP: 2.69
  • K/9: 9.6
  • BB/9: 1.92
  • WHIP: 0.85
  • GB/FB: 2.04
  • xERA: 2.62

Suarez’s ability to keep batters off balance with a mix of strikeouts and ground balls makes him a formidable opponent.

Baltimore Orioles – Kyle Bradish

Kyle Bradish, the right-handed pitcher for the Orioles, has a solid ERA of 2.62. His advanced stats reflect his strong performance this season:

  • SIERA: 2.88
  • xFIP: 2.77
  • K/9: 12.84
  • BB/9: 3.67
  • WHIP: 1.11
  • GB/FB: 1.71
  • xERA: 2.18

Bradish excels at striking out batters, but his higher walk rate compared to Suarez could be a critical factor in this matchup.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

When comparing bullpens, the Phillies hold an edge over the Orioles:

  • Philadelphia Phillies Bullpen Rank: 3
  • Baltimore Orioles Bullpen Rank: 16

The Phillies’ bullpen has been one of the best in the league, consistently shutting down opponents and preserving leads. In contrast, the Orioles’ bullpen has struggled, which could be a decisive factor in close games.

Offensive Matchup Analysis

Offensively, both teams have shown their strengths, but the Orioles have a slight advantage overall:

  • Philadelphia Phillies:
  • Overall Rank: 8
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 7
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 16
  • Baltimore Orioles:
  • Overall Rank: 3
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 5
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 4

The Phillies have performed well against left-handed pitchers but have struggled against right-handers. The Orioles, on the other hand, are consistently strong against both left and right-handed pitchers.

Phillies vs Orioles Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability for Phillies vs Orioles Prediction

Using our MLB betting model, we project the following probabilities for the game:

  • Philadelphia Phillies (Ranger Suarez): 41.44%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: 141
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 2.41
  • Baltimore Orioles (Kyle Bradish): 58.56%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: -141
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 1.71

Based on these probabilities, the Orioles have a higher chance of winning this game.

Recommended MLB Pick

Given our MLB betting model analysis, the recommended pick for this game is:

  • Side: Baltimore Orioles
  • Pitcher: Kyle Bradish
  • Odds: -133
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.33
  • Confidence: Tiny Value

While the value is small, the Orioles are the favored pick based on the odds and our model’s analysis.

Conclusion: Phillies vs Orioles Prediction

In conclusion, our Phillies vs Orioles prediction indicates a competitive game with the Orioles having the upper hand. However, always use Phillies vs Orioles predictions as a guide and do not blindly follow anyone’s sports picks. Shop for the best MLB baseball betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the MLB season. If you want to learn how to bet like a pro using sports betting models, check out our sports betting courses.

By thoroughly analyzing both teams, their starting pitchers, bullpen strength, and offensive capabilities, we aim to provide you with a comprehensive view to inform your betting decisions. Always remember to bet responsibly and stay informed by checking the latest updates and odds.

Access my free content and join exclusive, private email circle for strategic advice, personal stories, and expert tips.

No spam. Betting value only.