Phillies vs Mets Prediction

Our Phillies vs Mets prediction, backed by an MLB betting model, gives the Phillies a 59.78% win probability with Cristopher Sanchez pitching. Our model suggests betting on the Phillies at -119, highlighting a modest edge in this matchup. Check latest odds before placing bets.


As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to take on the New York Mets at Citi Field on May 13, 2024, our Phillies vs Mets prediction centers on a thrilling pitcher’s duel between Cristopher Sanchez and Sean Manaea. Both left-handers are set to deliver an intriguing battle in this pivotal MLB matchup. This game not only promises intense action but also holds significant betting interest. Here’s a deep dive into the key stats, odds, and factors that will shape this encounter.

Game Details

  • Date: Monday, May 13, 2024
  • Venue: Citi Field, New York
  • Starting Pitchers: Cristopher Sanchez (Phillies) vs Sean Manaea (Mets)
  • Odds: Phillies (-119), Mets (+110)
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Pitching Matchup Analysis

Cristopher Sanchez: Steady and Reliable

  • ERA: 3.22
  • SIERA: 3.63
  • xFIP: 3.34
  • K/9: 8.42
  • BB/9: 3.72
  • WHIP: 1.46
  • Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio (GB/FB): 3.24
  • Expected ERA (xERA): 3.63

Cristopher Sanchez has demonstrated consistency this season, showcasing an ability to control the game with a higher strikeout rate and a favorable ground ball to fly ball ratio compared to his Mets counterpart.

Sean Manaea: Facing Challenges

  • ERA: 3.31
  • SIERA: 4.91
  • xFIP: 4.98
  • K/9: 7.9
  • BB/9: 4.84
  • WHIP: 1.39
  • Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio (GB/FB): 0.71
  • Expected ERA (xERA): 4.46

Sean Manaea, despite a close ERA to Sanchez, trails in underlying metrics like SIERA and xFIP, suggesting he might be more vulnerable, especially with a lower K/9 and a higher BB/9 rate.

Team Comparisons

Bullpen Strength

  • Philadelphia Phillies: Ranked 7th
  • New York Mets: Ranked 2nd

While the Mets have a stronger bullpen overall, the Phillies’ starters and middle relief can provide robust support, crucial in tight games.

Offensive Matchup

  • Philadelphia Phillies: Overall rank 8
  • Vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 9
  • New York Mets: Overall rank 18
  • Vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 27

The Phillies hold a distinct advantage offensively, especially against left-handed pitching, which could play a pivotal role in today’s game.

Phillies vs Mets Prediction

MLB Betting Model and Prediction

Based on advanced stats and our proprietary MLB betting model, here are the projected odds and probabilities:

  • Philadelphia Phillies (Sanchez): 59.78% chance of winning, Projected Odds: -149 (Decimal: 1.67)
  • New York Mets (Manaea): 40.22% chance of winning, Projected Odds: +149 (Decimal: 2.49)

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: Philadelphia Phillies to win
  • Pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez
  • Odds: -119
  • Confidence: Tiny Value (Adjusted Kelly Criterion: 0.11)

Conclusion: Phillies vs Mets Prediction

For today’s Phillies vs Mets prediction, leveraging detailed statistical analysis and our betting model suggests a slight edge to the Phillies with Cristopher Sanchez on the mound. Remember, while our analysis provides a foundational perspective, always ensure to shop for the best MLB odds and consider all factors before placing your bet. To further refine your betting strategies and understand the intricacies of MLB odds, consider exploring our sports betting courses.

Note: This analysis is intended to guide and educate bettors. Always gamble responsibly and within your means.

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