Phillies vs Marlins Prediction

Our MLB betting model projects a 71.19% win probability for the Phillies against the Marlins in tonight’s matchup, with Ranger Suarez facing Trevor Rogers. The Phillies’ superior bullpen, offense, and Suarez’s strong stats give them a clear edge, making the Phillies a solid pick at -182.


In this Phillies vs Marlins Prediction on Friday, May 10, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies face off against the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park, with Ranger Suarez taking the mound against Trevor Rogers. With the current sportsbook odds favoring the Phillies at -182 and the Marlins at +140, bettors are looking for an edge in predicting the winner of this National League East matchup.

Game Info and Sportsbook Odds

  • Date: Friday, May 10, 2024
  • Location: loanDepot park
  • Away Team: Philadelphia Phillies
  • Home Team: Miami Marlins
  • Phillies Odds: 1.55 (Decimal), -182 (US)
  • Marlins Odds: 2.40 (Decimal), +140 (US)
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Starting Pitchers

Philadelphia Phillies – Ranger Suarez

  • Hand: Left-Handed
  • ERA: 1.72

Miami Marlins – Trevor Rogers

  • Hand: Left-Handed
  • ERA: 6.15

Advanced Stats Comparison

Ranger Suarez (Philadelphia Phillies)

  • SIERA: 2.61
  • xFIP: 2.61
  • K/9: 8.81
  • BB/9: 1.15
  • WHIP: 0.72
  • GB/FB: 2.23
  • xERA: 2.24

Trevor Rogers (Miami Marlins)

  • SIERA: 4.45
  • xFIP: 4.21
  • K/9: 7.49
  • BB/9: 4.01
  • WHIP: 1.72
  • GB/FB: 1.79
  • xERA: 5.01

Analysis:

Ranger Suarez has the advantage in nearly all pitching metrics compared to Trevor Rogers. His low ERA, excellent control, and high ground ball rate make him a formidable opponent. Rogers, on the other hand, struggles with control, resulting in a higher walk rate and WHIP.

Bullpen Matchup

  • Philadelphia Phillies Bullpen Rank: 8th
  • Miami Marlins Bullpen Rank: 23rd

The Phillies bullpen is significantly stronger than the Marlins’, giving Philadelphia a further edge in later innings.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Overall Rank: 10th
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 10th
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 11th

Miami Marlins

  • Overall Rank: 29th
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 29th
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 27th

The Phillies’ offense ranks far higher than the Marlins, particularly against left-handed pitching, which is advantageous given Trevor Rogers’ starting role.

Phillies vs Marlins Prediction

Betting Model Probability for Phillies vs Marlins Prediction

  • Philadelphia Phillies (Ranger Suarez): 71.19%
  • Projected US Odds: -247
  • Projected Decimal Odds: 1.40
  • Miami Marlins (Trevor Rogers): 28.80%
  • Projected US Odds: +247
  • Projected Decimal Odds: 3.47

Recommended MLB Pick

Moneyline: Philadelphia Phillies (Ranger Suarez)

  • Odds: -182
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Value: 1.88
  • Confidence: Good Value

Conclusion

Using this Phillies vs Marlins Prediction, it’s evident that the Philadelphia Phillies offer strong value on the moneyline with Ranger Suarez starting. The Phillies hold key advantages in pitching, bullpen strength, and offensive performance against left-handers. Remember to compare odds across multiple sportsbooks and make informed decisions based on analytical models. For final picks and more projections, check out the “MLB Picks” page or access the MLB Betting Model to refine your strategies.

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