Phillies vs Cubs Prediction

Our MLB betting model for the Phillies vs Cubs prediction gives the Phillies a 61.14% win probability, projecting their odds at -157 (1.64 in decimal). With Cristopher Sanchez on the mound and the Phillies’ top-ranked bullpen, betting on the Phillies at -133 offers solid value.


As the Philadelphia Phillies gear up to face the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Thursday, July 4, 2024, fans and bettors alike are keenly eyeing the starting pitchers: Cristopher Sanchez for the Phillies and Jameson Taillon for the Cubs. This “Phillies vs Cubs Prediction” aims to provide a detailed analysis of the matchup, breaking down the critical stats and offering expert betting advice.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

  • Date: Thursday, July 4, 2024
  • Ballpark: Wrigley Field
  • Philadelphia Phillies Odds: 1.75 (-133)
  • Chicago Cubs Odds: 2.05 (105)

As always, odds can fluctuate, so it’s crucial to check multiple sportsbooks to ensure you’re getting the best MLB odds available.

Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Cristopher Sanchez (Philadelphia Phillies)

  • Hand: Left Handed
  • ERA: 2.41

Cristopher Sanchez has been a standout performer this season. His advanced stats reveal why he’s a reliable option on the mound for the Phillies:

  • SIERA: 3.31
  • xFIP: 3.00
  • K/9: 7.62
  • BB/9: 2.31
  • WHIP: 1.19
  • GB/FB: 3.35
  • xERA: 3.33

Sanchez’s impressive SIERA and xFIP indicate his ability to limit runs effectively, while his strong K/9 and low BB/9 suggest he maintains control and strikes out batters consistently.

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Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs)

  • Hand: Right Handed
  • ERA: 3.03

Jameson Taillon, on the other hand, has also had a solid season for the Cubs. Here’s a look at his advanced stats:

  • SIERA: 4.32
  • xFIP: 4.33
  • K/9: 7.02
  • BB/9: 2.06
  • WHIP: 1.24
  • GB/FB: 0.85
  • xERA: 3.63

While Taillon’s SIERA and xFIP are higher than Sanchez’s, indicating he might be more susceptible to allowing runs, his low BB/9 and moderate K/9 show he can still be a dependable pitcher.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

When comparing the bullpens, there is a stark contrast between the two teams:

  • Philadelphia Phillies Bullpen Rank: 1st
  • Chicago Cubs Bullpen Rank: 28th

The Phillies’ bullpen has been exceptional, ranking first in the league. This strength provides a safety net if Sanchez encounters trouble. Conversely, the Cubs’ bullpen struggles significantly, ranked 28th, which could be a critical weakness.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Overall Rank: 21st
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 23rd
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 10th

Chicago Cubs

  • Overall Rank: 6th
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 26th
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 19th

The Phillies’ offense performs better against right-handed pitchers, ranking 10th, while they struggle against left-handers, sitting at 23rd. The Cubs have a strong overall offense but notably struggle against left-handed pitchers like Sanchez.

Phillies vs Cubs Prediction

Betting Model Probability for Phillies vs Cubs Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives us the following probabilities:

  • Philadelphia Phillies (Cristopher Sanchez): 61.14%
  • Chicago Cubs (Jameson Taillon): 38.85%

Using these probabilities, our model projects the odds as:

  • MLB Model Projected US Odds for Phillies: -157 (1.64 in decimal)
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds for Cubs: 157 (2.57 in decimal)

Given these probabilities and the current odds, there is value in betting on the Phillies.

Recommended MLB Pick Based on Our MLB Betting Model Analysis

Moneyline Value Pick: Philadelphia Phillies

  • Pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez
  • Odds: -133
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.93
  • Confidence: Solid value

Our analysis shows that the Phillies, led by Cristopher Sanchez, offer solid value at the current odds. With their bullpen’s superior performance and the Cubs’ struggles against left-handed pitching, the Phillies are a strong pick.

Conclusion for Phillies vs Cubs Prediction

In summary, our “Phillies vs Cubs Prediction” suggests that betting on the Philadelphia Phillies provides solid value given the current odds. Sanchez’s strong performance, combined with the Phillies’ top-ranked bullpen and the Cubs’ difficulties against left-handed pitchers, make the Phillies a reliable choice. Always remember to shop around for the best MLB betting odds and take advantage of promotions. For more expert betting advice and detailed analysis, check out our “MLB Picks” page and consider learning how to make your own projections with our sports betting courses.

Using this Phillies vs Cubs Prediction as a guide, you can make informed betting decisions. Never follow picks blindly; instead, use the information provided to enhance your betting strategy and maximize your chances of success.

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