Phillies vs Braves Prediction

Our Phillies vs Braves prediction gives the Braves a slight edge with a 50.69% win probability according to our MLB betting model. However, the betting value lies with the Phillies, who have a 49.31% chance of winning, making them a solid pick at +120 odds.


Introduction

Welcome to our comprehensive Phillies vs Braves prediction for the highly anticipated matchup on Friday, July 5, 2024. This game features a thrilling pitcher duel between Philadelphia Phillies’ right-handed ace, Aaron Nola, and Atlanta Braves’ left-handed star, Max Fried. Our analysis dives deep into advanced stats, bullpen matchups, and offensive metrics to provide the best insights and betting advice for this exciting MLB contest. Whether you are a seasoned bettor or new to MLB betting, our Phillies vs Braves prediction aims to equip you with all the necessary information to make an informed wager.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Before diving into the specifics, let’s look at the game information and current sportsbook odds. Always ensure to check the latest odds from various sportsbooks as they can fluctuate.

Decimal Odds and US Odds

  • Away Team: Philadelphia Phillies | Decimal Odds: 2.20 | US Odds: +120
  • Home Team: Atlanta Braves | Decimal Odds: 1.77 | US Odds: -130
  • Ballpark: Truist Park

Starting Pitchers Comparison

Philadelphia Phillies: Aaron Nola

  • Hand: Right Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 3.43
  • SIERA: 3.63
  • xFIP: 3.39
  • K/9: 8.28
  • BB/9: 2.09
  • WHIP: 1.04
  • GB/FB: 1.36
  • xERA: 3.4
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Atlanta Braves: Max Fried

  • Hand: Left Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 2.91
  • SIERA: 3.6
  • xFIP: 3.34
  • K/9: 7.88
  • BB/9: 2.81
  • WHIP: 1.09
  • GB/FB: 2.62
  • xERA: 3.43

When comparing the advanced stats of Aaron Nola and Max Fried, both pitchers exhibit impressive skills, but with slight differences in their strengths. Nola showcases a slightly better strikeout rate (K/9) and walk rate (BB/9) compared to Fried. On the other hand, Fried has a lower ERA and higher groundball-to-flyball ratio (GB/FB), indicating his ability to induce groundballs effectively.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

The bullpen performance can significantly influence the outcome of the game, especially in close matchups.

  • Philadelphia Phillies Bullpen Rank: 1
  • Atlanta Braves Bullpen Rank: 5

The Phillies’ bullpen ranks first, showcasing their dominance and reliability in late-game situations. The Braves’ bullpen, although ranked fifth, is also formidable and can hold its own. This slight edge in bullpen performance favors the Phillies in tight scenarios.

Offensive Matchup Analysis

Examining the offensive capabilities of both teams provides further insights into our Phillies vs Braves prediction.

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Overall Offensive Rank: 16
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 23
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 9

Atlanta Braves

  • Overall Offensive Rank: N/A
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 11
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 21

The Phillies have a significant advantage when facing right-handed pitchers, ranking 9th overall. However, their performance against left-handed pitchers is considerably weaker, ranking 23rd. Conversely, the Braves excel against left-handed pitchers, ranking 11th, but struggle more against right-handed pitchers. This dynamic is crucial in our Phillies vs Braves prediction as Aaron Nola, a right-handed pitcher, may find it easier to navigate the Braves’ lineup.

Phillies vs Braves Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

Our MLB betting model provides a probabilistic analysis for the Phillies vs Braves prediction.

Baseball Betting Model Probability

  • Philadelphia Phillies (Aaron Nola): 49.31%
  • Atlanta Braves (Max Fried): 50.69%

MLB Model Projected Odds

  • Philadelphia Phillies: +103 (Decimal Odds: 2.03)
  • Atlanta Braves: -103 (Decimal Odds: 1.97)

The model suggests a near-even split in probability, slightly favoring the Braves. However, the value on the moneyline lies with the Phillies, particularly with the odds of +120.

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our comprehensive analysis and MLB betting model, the recommended MLB pick for this game is:

  • Side: Philadelphia Phillies
  • Pitcher: Aaron Nola
  • Odds: +120
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.71
  • Confidence: Solid value

This recommendation is backed by the slightly better advanced stats of Aaron Nola, the higher ranking Phillies bullpen, and the favorable moneyline odds.

Conclusion: Phillies vs Braves Prediction

In summary, our Phillies vs Braves prediction highlights the Philadelphia Phillies as a valuable betting pick, given their strong bullpen and the solid performance of Aaron Nola. While the Braves have a slight probabilistic edge, the betting value leans towards the Phillies. Remember, always shop for the best MLB betting odds and take advantage of promotions during the baseball season.

Use this Phillies vs Braves prediction to inform your bets, but always make sure to conduct your own analysis and stay updated with the latest odds. For more detailed MLB betting models and picks, check our “MLB Picks” page or explore our sports betting courses to learn how to bet like a pro.


This post aims to provide expert-level insights and enhance your MLB betting strategy. Good luck and enjoy the game!

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