Penguins vs Maple Leafs Prediction

In Sunday’s anticipated showdown, our NHL betting model leans towards the Maple Leafs with a 58.26% win probability against the Penguins. Despite a tight matchup and projected high scoring, the odds don’t present a clear betting opportunity. A thrilling game expected, but proceed with caution in betting.

As the NHL season continues to unfold, the upcoming match between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Toronto Maple Leafs on Sunday, April 7, 2024, has caught the eye of fans and bettors alike. This Penguins vs Maple Leafs prediction post aims to provide an in-depth analysis of both teams’ performance, statistical matchups, and projected outcomes to guide your betting decisions. With current odds favoring the Maple Leafs at 1.63 (US odds -159) and the Penguins at 2.35 (US odds +135), this game promises to be an exciting clash.

Game Overview

Penguins and Maple Leafs Face Off

  • Date: Sunday, April 7, 2024
  • Venue: Home advantage for Toronto Maple Leafs
  • Betting Odds: Maple Leafs favored at 1.63 (-159), Penguins at 2.35 (+135)

Statistical Analysis: Key Factors to Consider

High Danger Chances and Offensive Matchup

The Penguins and the Maple Leafs have shown varying degrees of offensive and defensive capabilities this season. Pittsburgh ranks 7th in High Danger Chances per 60 minutes (HDCF/60) but 13th in High Danger Chances Allowed (HDCA/60), indicating a solid offensive but slightly vulnerable defense. Conversely, Toronto, ranking 4th in HDCF/60 and 17th in HDCA/60, shows a strong offensive potential paired with defensive challenges.

In terms of goals for (GF) per 60 minutes, the Maple Leafs lead with 3.92 against the Penguins’ 3.33, underscoring Toronto’s more potent attack. However, the defensive stats show the Maple Leafs with a better record, allowing only 2.89 goals against (GA) per 60 minutes, compared to the Penguins’ 3.57.

Goalie Matchup and Impact on Game Outcomes

The projected starting goalies bring their own set of statistics to the game, with Tristan Jarry (PIT) holding a save percentage (SV%) of .904 and Ilya Samsonov (TOR) at .888. Jarry’s expected goals against (3.08) is slightly better than Samsonov’s (3.37), indicating a potential edge for Pittsburgh in the goaltending department.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs Prediction

NHL Betting Model Prediction

According to our NHL betting model, the Toronto Maple Leafs hold a 58.26% win probability, with projected odds at 1.72 (-140), while the Pittsburgh Penguins are at a 41.73% win probability, with odds at 2.40 (+140). The projected total for the game stands at 7.11, indicating a high-scoring affair.

Betting Recommendations: To Bet or Not to Bet?

Given the detailed analysis and the betting model’s insights, the matchup between the Penguins and the Maple Leafs does not qualify for a recommended bet according to the adjusted Kelly Criterion (-0.14). This suggests a game that is too close to call with the given odds, urging bettors to proceed with caution.

Conclusion: Penguins vs Maple Leafs Prediction

The Penguins vs Maple Leafs prediction underscores an exciting game that could go either way. With Toronto’s strong offense going up against Pittsburgh’s slightly better goaltending, it promises to be a closely contested match. While the current betting odds do not suggest a clear betting opportunity, the game itself will undoubtedly provide plenty of excitement for NHL fans and bettors alike.


Always shop for the best odds at trusted bookmakers and consider the dynamics of the game, including potential goalie changes, before placing your bets. For those looking to refine their betting strategies, exploring analytical models and courses on sports betting can provide valuable insights.

Prediction Question: Will the Toronto Maple Leafs’ offensive power overcome the Pittsburgh Penguins’ goaltending to secure a home victory?

Betting Model’s Outcome: A close game with the Maple Leafs favored, but no clear betting recommendation.

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