Explore the expert PAUL CRAIG vs CAIO BORRALHO UFC prediction. UFC betting models show CAIO BORRALHO as a favorite with a 62.97% win probability by the ELO model and 60.33% by logistic regression. Don’t miss out on these insights for your next bet!

Introduction to the Matchup

This UFC fight night features an exciting matchup between PAUL CRAIG and CAIO BORRALHO, set to captivate MMA fans. This PAUL CRAIG vs CAIO BORRALHO UFC prediction analysis is crafted by Eric, a proficient member of the Underdog Chance Sports Betting Masterclass. Eric utilizes an advanced UFC betting model to provide insights and predictions. Today, we delve deep into the statistics and predictions for this fight scheduled for Saturday, May 4, 2024.

Fighter Overview and Stats Analysis


  • Striking and Defense: Paul Craig shows a striking rate of 2.42 significant strikes landed per minute with a 46% striking accuracy. However, he absorbs 2.86 strikes per minute, suggesting some defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Ground Game: Craig’s strength lies in his ground game, averaging 1.76 takedowns and 1.6 submissions per 15 minutes, though his takedown accuracy is relatively low at 22%.
  • ELO Rating: With an ELO rating of 1506.05, Craig is seen as the underdog in this matchup.


  • Striking and Defense: Caio Borralho lands slightly more strikes per minute at 2.73 with a higher accuracy of 58%. His striking defense at 60% overshadows Craig’s, absorbing fewer strikes at 1.98 per minute.
  • Ground Game: Borralho is less active in takedowns, averaging 0.6 per 15 minutes but boasts a higher accuracy and defensive rate.
  • ELO Rating: Borralho’s ELO rating stands at 1598.25, reflecting a statistical edge over Craig.

UFC Betting Model and Predictions

Model Insights

  • ELO and Logistic Regression Predictions: The ELO model predicts a 62.97% winning probability for Caio Borralho, while the logistic regression also favors him at 60.33%. Paul Craig’s chances are pegged at around 37-39% by both models.
  • Betting Strategy: Eric’s model highlights the best betting opportunities when the predicted odds align with real-world odds between 1.50 and 3.0 (US odds of -200 to +200). This matchup’s odds are outside these ranges, indicating a cautious approach.

Recommended UFC Fight Pick

  • CAIO BORRALHO to win: Based on the combined insights from the statistical models and current form, Caio Borralho is expected to secure a victory against Paul Craig.

Conclusion: Harnessing PAUL CRAIG vs CAIO BORRALHO UFC Prediction

While the UFC betting model provides a strong foundation for predictions, remember that no bet should be placed blindly. Utilize this PAUL CRAIG vs CAIO BORRALHO UFC prediction as a guide, but always cross-reference with the latest updates, fighter conditions, and external factors such as injuries and fight strategies. Continuously shopping for the best UFC betting odds and leveraging bonuses can enhance your betting strategy. For those keen on professional betting, consider engaging with sports betting models and courses to refine your analytical skills for long-term success.

Remember, the insights provided here are tools to aid in decision-making, not guarantees. Betting responsibly and strategically is key to enjoying the sport and potentially securing betting success.

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