Padres vs Reds Prediction

For the Padres vs Reds game on May 21, 2024, our MLB betting model gives the San Diego Padres a 56.52% chance of winning, projecting odds of -130. With Joe Musgrove on the mound, the Padres are favored over the Reds, who have a 43.48% chance. Bet confidently with our expert analysis!


As we approach the much-anticipated game between the San Diego Padres and the Cincinnati Reds, all eyes are on the starting pitchers, Joe Musgrove and Andrew Abbott. In this detailed analysis, we delve into the Padres vs Reds Prediction, offering insights based on advanced statistics, bullpen matchups, offensive capabilities, and our proprietary MLB betting model. Let’s break down the critical factors that could influence the outcome of this exciting matchup.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

  • Date: Tuesday, May 21, 2024
  • Ballpark: Great American Ball Park

Betting Odds

TeamDecimal OddsUS Odds
San Diego Padres1.80-125
Cincinnati Reds2.00100

Note: Odds can change, so always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks.

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Starting Pitchers

San Diego Padres: Joe Musgrove

  • Hand: Right Handed
  • ERA: 6.37
  • SIERA: 4.14
  • xFIP: 4.29
  • K/9: 7.9
  • BB/9: 2.85
  • WHIP: 1.51
  • GB/FB: 1.11
  • xERA: 6.31

Joe Musgrove has struggled this season with a high ERA of 6.37. However, his SIERA of 4.14 and xFIP of 4.29 suggest that he might be pitching better than his ERA indicates. His strikeout rate (K/9) is 7.9, and he maintains a decent walk rate (BB/9) of 2.85. His WHIP is 1.51, which is concerning, and his ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB/FB) is 1.11. The xERA of 6.31 suggests that Musgrove’s struggles could continue.

Cincinnati Reds: Andrew Abbott

  • Hand: Left Handed
  • ERA: 3.06
  • SIERA: 4.31
  • xFIP: 4.48
  • K/9: 7.38
  • BB/9: 2.52
  • WHIP: 1.14
  • GB/FB: 0.68
  • xERA: 2.77

Andrew Abbott has been more effective with an ERA of 3.06. His SIERA and xFIP are slightly higher at 4.31 and 4.48, respectively, indicating some potential regression. He has a slightly lower strikeout rate (K/9) of 7.38 but also a better walk rate (BB/9) of 2.52. His WHIP of 1.14 is solid, and his GB/FB ratio is 0.68. His xERA of 2.77 suggests he could continue his strong performance.

Bullpen Matchup

San Diego Padres Bullpen

  • Rank: 14

Cincinnati Reds Bullpen

  • Rank: 15

The bullpen matchup is fairly even, with the Padres slightly ahead in the rankings. Both teams will need their relievers to step up in crucial moments.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

San Diego Padres

  • Overall Rank: 6
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 26
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 3

Cincinnati Reds

  • Overall Rank: 25
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 16
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 29

The Padres have a significant edge overall and against right-handed pitchers, though they struggle against lefties, ranking 26th. The Reds, on the other hand, rank poorly overall and particularly struggle against right-handed pitchers.

Padres vs Reds Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

Probability and Projected Odds

TeamProbabilityProjected US OddsProjected Decimal Odds
San Diego Padres56.52%-1301.77
Cincinnati Reds43.48%1302.30

Our MLB betting model gives the Padres a 56.52% chance of winning, projecting US odds of -130. For the Reds, the model projects a 43.48% chance with US odds of 130.

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our MLB betting model analysis, the recommended pick is:

  • Side: San Diego Padres
  • Pitcher: Joe Musgrove
  • Odds: -125
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.22
  • Confidence: Tiny value

Conclusion: Padres vs Reds Prediction

In conclusion, the Padres vs Reds Prediction points towards a slight edge for the San Diego Padres, driven by our betting model and statistical analysis. However, as with all sports betting, it’s crucial to shop for the best odds and consider all factors before placing a bet. For more detailed MLB bets and first-half picks, visit our “MLB Picks” page or access our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets to make your own projections.

Use this Padres vs Reds Prediction as a guide, but always make informed decisions and never blindly follow any sports picks. Take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the baseball betting season, and if you want to learn how to bet analytically like a pro, check out our sports betting courses.

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