Padres vs Mets Prediction

The Padres vs Mets Prediction favors the New York Mets with a 52.33% probability according to our MLB betting model. With Sean Manaea pitching and odds at -105, the Mets hold a slight edge over the Padres. Consider betting on the Mets for this matchup on Friday, June 14, 2024.


The matchup between the San Diego Padres and the New York Mets is set to be an intriguing contest, with both teams fielding promising pitchers in Matt Waldron and Sean Manaea. As we dive into the Padres vs Mets Prediction, we’ll examine the key elements that could determine the outcome of this game. This analysis will help you make informed betting decisions and increase your chances of success.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

San Diego Padres vs New York Mets

Date: Friday, June 14, 2024
Ballpark: Citi Field

Sportsbook Odds:

  • San Diego Padres: 1.85 (-118)
  • New York Mets: 1.95 (-105)

It’s important to remember that odds can fluctuate, so always check for the best MLB odds across various sportsbooks.

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Starting Pitchers Comparison

Matt Waldron – San Diego Padres

  • Hand: Right Handed
  • ERA: 3.76
  • SIERA: 3.84
  • xFIP: 3.91
  • K/9: 8.83
  • BB/9: 2.73
  • WHIP: 1.23
  • GB/FB: 0.89
  • xERA: 3.31

Sean Manaea – New York Mets

  • Hand: Left Handed
  • ERA: 4.3
  • SIERA: 4.21
  • xFIP: 4.29
  • K/9: 8.9
  • BB/9: 3.71
  • WHIP: 1.35
  • GB/FB: 0.74
  • xERA: 4.44

In comparing both pitchers, Matt Waldron of the Padres appears to have a slight edge over Sean Manaea of the Mets in several advanced metrics. Waldron’s lower SIERA, xFIP, and WHIP indicate a more consistent and effective performance on the mound.

Bullpen Matchup

Bullpen Rankings

  • San Diego Padres: 14th
  • New York Mets: 4th

The Mets hold a clear advantage in the bullpen department, ranking 4th overall compared to the Padres’ 14th place. This disparity could play a significant role, especially if the game extends into the later innings.

Offensive Matchup

Team Batting Ranks

  • San Diego Padres Overall Rank: 4
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 23
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 1
  • New York Mets Overall Rank: 6
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 3
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 9

The Padres boast a strong offensive lineup overall, particularly excelling against right-handed pitchers where they rank first. However, they struggle significantly against left-handed pitchers, ranking 23rd. This could be a critical factor given that Sean Manaea, a left-hander, will be starting for the Mets. On the other hand, the Mets’ offense is more balanced, performing well against both left and right-handed pitching.

Padres vs Mets Prediction

Betting Model Analysis

Probability & Projected Odds

  • San Diego Padres (Matt Waldron): 47.66% probability
  • MLB Model Projected US odds: 110
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal odds: 2.10
  • New York Mets (Sean Manaea): 52.33% probability
  • MLB Model Projected US odds: -110
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal odds: 1.91

Based on our MLB betting model, the New York Mets have a slightly higher probability of winning this game at 52.33%. This translates to projected odds of -110, offering a modest value for those looking to bet on the Mets.

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Side: New York Mets
  • Pitcher: Sean Manaea
  • Odds: -105
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.22 (tiny value)

Given the betting model’s analysis, the recommended pick for this game is the New York Mets with Sean Manaea on the mound at odds of -105. The confidence level in this pick is modest, reflecting a tiny value.

Conclusion: Padres vs Mets Prediction

In summary, the Padres vs Mets Prediction leans towards the New York Mets edging out the San Diego Padres. While Matt Waldron has shown promising performance metrics, the Mets’ bullpen strength and balanced offensive capability, especially against right-handed pitching, give them an advantage. Additionally, Sean Manaea’s ability to exploit the Padres’ struggles against left-handed pitchers could be a pivotal factor.

Use this Padres vs Mets Prediction to guide your betting decisions, but remember to always compare the best MLB betting odds and take advantage of promotions. For more insights and to learn how to bet analytically, check out our sports betting courses and betting models. Betting smartly involves continuous learning and adapting strategies, so stay informed and make well-calculated decisions.

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