Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction

Our MLB betting model forecasts a 55.43% probability of a Padres win over the Diamondbacks in the upcoming matchup. With solid odds at -105, this suggests valuable betting potential on the Padres, making them a strong pick for this game. Always verify odds before placing bets.


In this detailed analysis of the upcoming MLB game on Sunday, May 5, 2024, we focus on the Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction, where the San Diego Padres will face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. With the Padres led by right-handed pitcher Matt Waldron and the Diamondbacks by Ryne Nelson, this game promises a compelling matchup. Let’s delve into the key statistics and insights to forecast the outcome of this encounter.

Game Overview and Odds

Matchup Information

  • Away Team: San Diego Padres
  • Home Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Date: Sunday, May 5, 2024
  • Venue: Chase Field
MB MLB 728x90 Jpg

Current Sportsbook Odds

  • Padres Odds: 1.95 (Decimal), -105 (US)
  • Diamondbacks Odds: 1.83 (Decimal), -120 (US)

Note: Odds can fluctuate; it’s advisable to check various sportsbooks for the best MLB odds.

Pitching Matchup Analysis

Starting Pitchers

  • Matt Waldron (Padres): ERA – 4.35, SIERA – 4.23, xFIP – 4.28, K/9 – 7.84, BB/9 – 2.9, WHIP – 1.35, GB/FB – 0.86, xERA – 4.33
  • Ryne Nelson (Diamondbacks): ERA – 4.60, SIERA – 4.31, xFIP – 4.37, K/9 – 7.47, BB/9 – 2.87, WHIP – 1.53, GB/FB – 1.00, xERA – 4.07


Comparing the starting pitchers, Matt Waldron shows a slightly better command and efficiency than Ryne Nelson, despite the close ERA and other metrics. Waldron’s lower WHIP and xERA suggest he might be slightly more effective at suppressing opposing hitters.

Bullpen and Offensive Matchup

Bullpen Rankings

  • San Diego Padres: 17th
  • Arizona Diamondbacks: 27th

The Padres’ bullpen holds a significant edge over the Diamondbacks’, ranking ten spots higher, which could be pivotal in the late innings.

Offensive Comparison

Overall and Specific Matchups

  • Padres Offensive Rank: 8th overall, 25th vs. LHP, 5th vs. RHP
  • Diamondbacks Offensive Rank: 11th overall, 1st vs. LHP, 25th vs. RHP

The Padres perform better against right-handed pitchers, which aligns well against Nelson. Conversely, the Diamondbacks excel against lefties but may struggle against Waldron’s right-handed delivery.

Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction

Betting Model and Prediction

MLB Betting Model Outputs

  • Probability: Padres 55.43%, Diamondbacks 44.55%
  • Projected Odds: Padres -124 (1.80 Decimal), Diamondbacks +124 (2.24 Decimal)

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: San Diego Padres (Moneyline)
  • Odds: -105
  • Value: Solid (Adjusted Kelly Criterion: 0.85)
  • Confidence: High

The model favors the Padres, attributing a 55.43% probability of winning, which suggests good value on the Padres at -105 odds.

Conclusion: Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction

As you consider this Padres vs Diamondbacks prediction, remember to approach betting analytically. Always shop for the best odds and consider using sports betting models to guide your decisions. For more insights and detailed betting strategies, visit our MLB Picks page or explore our sports betting courses.

Final Thoughts

Bet intelligently, utilize analytical tools, and never rely solely on one source for sports betting decisions. Enjoy the game and good luck with your bets!

Access my free content and join exclusive, private email circle for strategic advice, personal stories, and expert tips.

No spam. Betting value only.