Padres vs Braves Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Atlanta Braves a 59.82% chance to win against the San Diego Padres on May 17, 2024. With Max Fried pitching, the Braves’ projected odds are 1.67 (-149). Despite this, there’s value in betting on the Padres at +189, with a solid confidence level based on our analysis.


Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

As we approach the highly anticipated matchup between the San Diego Padres and the Atlanta Braves on Friday, May 17, 2024, betting enthusiasts are eager to delve into the statistics and odds to make informed decisions. Our Padres vs Braves prediction offers comprehensive insights to help you place your bets wisely.

  • Away Team: San Diego Padres
  • Decimal Odds: 2.89
  • US Odds: +189
  • Home Team: Atlanta Braves
  • Decimal Odds: 1.48
  • US Odds: -208
  • Ballpark: Truist Park

Note: Odds can change. Always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks.

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Starting Pitchers

San Diego Padres: Matt Waldron

  • Hand: Right Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 5.49

Atlanta Braves: Max Fried

  • Hand: Left Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 3.57

Advanced Pitching Stats Comparison

Matt Waldron (San Diego Padres)

  • SIERA: 4.38
  • xFIP: 4.51
  • K/9: 8.01
  • BB/9: 3.43
  • WHIP: 1.45
  • GB/FB: 0.79
  • xERA: 4.39

Max Fried (Atlanta Braves)

  • SIERA: 3.68
  • xFIP: 3.51
  • K/9: 7.35
  • BB/9: 3.38
  • WHIP: 1.04
  • GB/FB: 3.12
  • xERA: 3.42

Analysis of Starting Pitchers

Max Fried of the Atlanta Braves showcases more robust advanced statistics compared to Matt Waldron of the San Diego Padres. Fried’s lower SIERA and xFIP indicate a better underlying performance, while his WHIP of 1.04 suggests better control and fewer baserunners allowed compared to Waldron’s 1.45. Fried’s groundball to flyball ratio (3.12) also highlights his ability to induce groundouts, which is crucial in limiting the opposition’s scoring opportunities.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

  • San Diego Padres Bullpen Rank: 16
  • Atlanta Braves Bullpen Rank: 13

Both teams have middle-of-the-pack bullpens, with the Braves slightly ahead in the rankings. This could provide a minor edge to the Braves in the later innings of the game.

Offensive Matchup

Overall Offensive Ranks

  • San Diego Padres: 8
  • Atlanta Braves: 8

Offensive Ranks vs Pitchers

  • San Diego Padres vs Left Handed Pitchers: 26
  • San Diego Padres vs Right Handed Pitchers: 4
  • Atlanta Braves vs Left Handed Pitchers: 6
  • Atlanta Braves vs Right Handed Pitchers: 10

The Braves have a significant advantage against right-handed pitchers, ranking 6th overall, while the Padres struggle against left-handed pitchers, ranking 26th. This matchup favors the Braves, especially with left-hander Max Fried on the mound.

Padres vs Braves Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

Our MLB betting model provides an analytical approach to predict the outcome of this game. Here’s the breakdown:

  • San Diego Padres (Matt Waldron):
  • Probability: 40.17%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: +149
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 2.49
  • Atlanta Braves (Max Fried):
  • Probability: 59.82%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: -149
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 1.67

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our MLB betting model analysis, the moneyline value lies with the San Diego Padres, despite the Braves being the favorites. The recommended MLB pick is:

  • Side: San Diego Padres
  • Pitcher: Matt Waldron
  • Odds: +189
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.85
  • Confidence: Solid value

Note: For final best MLB bets and first half picks, please check the “MLB Picks” page or get my MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets to learn how to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections.

Conclusion for Padres vs Braves Prediction

Utilize this Padres vs Braves prediction to guide your betting strategy, but remember to always shop for the best MLB baseball betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the season. If you want to learn how to bet like a pro, using analytical sports betting models, check out my sports betting courses. Never blindly follow anyone’s sports picks and always make informed decisions based on thorough analysis.


By leveraging these insights, you’ll be better equipped to make educated bets on the Padres vs Braves game. Remember, successful sports betting relies on a blend of statistical analysis, strategic thinking, and continuous learning.

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