Orioles vs White Sox Prediction

The Orioles vs White Sox Prediction for May 23, 2024, highlights a 61.80% win probability for the Orioles and 38.19% for the White Sox, according to our MLB betting model. Despite the Orioles’ edge, betting value lies with the underdog White Sox at +190 odds. Shop around for the best MLB odds.


The much-anticipated matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and the Chicago White Sox is set to take place on Thursday, May 23, 2024. This Orioles vs White Sox Prediction dives deep into the game, analyzing key statistics, player performances, and betting odds to help you make an informed decision.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

The Baltimore Orioles are the away team, while the Chicago White Sox will play at their home ground, Guaranteed Rate Field. The current sportsbook odds are as follows:

  • Baltimore Orioles: 1.36 (Decimal Odds), -278 (US Odds)
  • Chicago White Sox: 2.90 (Decimal Odds), 190 (US Odds)

Please note that odds can change, so it’s always advisable to check for the best MLB odds across different sportsbooks.

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Starting Pitchers

Baltimore Orioles: Grayson Rodriguez

Grayson Rodriguez, a right-handed pitcher, has been a formidable force on the mound with an ERA of 3.15. Let’s compare some of his advanced stats:

  • SIERA: 3.73
  • xFIP: 3.91
  • K/9: 9.9
  • BB/9: 3.38
  • WHIP: 1.3
  • GB/FB: 0.74
  • xERA: 4

Chicago White Sox: Mike Clevinger

Mike Clevinger, also a right-handed pitcher, has struggled this season with an ERA of 5.56. Here are his advanced stats:

  • SIERA: 5.09
  • xFIP: 5.33
  • K/9: 7.94
  • BB/9: 4.76
  • WHIP: 1.85
  • GB/FB: 0.58
  • xERA: 7.15

Pitcher Analysis

Rodriguez clearly has the edge over Clevinger with significantly better numbers across the board. Rodriguez’s lower SIERA and xFIP indicate he’s been more effective at preventing runs. His higher strikeout rate (K/9) and lower walk rate (BB/9) also suggest better command and control compared to Clevinger.

Bullpen Matchup

The bullpen can play a critical role in the outcome of a game. Here’s a look at the bullpen rankings:

  • Baltimore Orioles: 11th
  • Chicago White Sox: 27th

The Orioles’ bullpen is significantly stronger, ranking 11th compared to the White Sox’s 27th. This disparity could play a pivotal role, especially in late innings.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

Baltimore Orioles

  • Overall Rank: 5th
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 1st
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 14th

Chicago White Sox

  • Overall Rank: 30th
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 30th
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 27th

The Orioles boast a strong offense, particularly dominant against left-handed pitchers. While their ranking against right-handed pitchers is slightly lower, they still outperform the White Sox significantly, who rank last overall in offensive capabilities.

Orioles vs White Sox Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

Our MLB betting model provides the following probabilities and projected odds for the Orioles vs White Sox Prediction:

  • Baltimore Orioles (Grayson Rodriguez): 61.80% probability, -162 (US Odds), 1.62 (Decimal Odds)
  • Chicago White Sox (Mike Clevinger): 38.19% probability, 162 (US Odds), 2.62 (Decimal Odds)

Recommended MLB PICK

Based on our MLB betting model analysis, the value lies with the Chicago White Sox, despite their underdog status. Here’s our recommended pick:

  • Side: Chicago White Sox
  • Pitcher: Mike Clevinger
  • Odds: 190 (US Odds)
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.57
  • Confidence: Solid value

This recommendation is based on the value provided by the odds, not necessarily the likelihood of the outcome. The higher return on betting on the White Sox presents a solid opportunity for value betting.

Conclusion: Orioles vs White Sox Prediction

This Orioles vs White Sox Prediction highlights the key factors influencing the game on May 23, 2024. While the Orioles have the advantage in pitching and overall performance, the value bet lies with the White Sox. Always use this prediction as a guide and never blindly follow anyone’s sports picks. Make sure to shop for the best MLB Baseball Betting Odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the baseball betting season. If you want to bet like a pro and learn how to use sports betting models, check out our sports betting courses.

For final best MLB bets and first-half picks, please visit our “MLB Picks” page or access our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets to learn how to calculate odds and make your own betting projections.

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