Orioles vs Reds Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Baltimore Orioles a 57.21% chance of winning against the Cincinnati Reds in the upcoming matchup. With projected odds favoring the Orioles at -134, they hold a significant edge over the Reds. Place your bets wisely, and consider the Orioles for a robust option.


In this detailed analysis of the Orioles vs Reds prediction, we dive into the upcoming MLB showdown scheduled for Friday, May 3, 2024, at the Great American Ball Park. With both teams displaying close odds at 1.91 (or -110 in US odds), the focus of our prediction will weigh heavily on the starting pitchers, Cole Irvin of the Baltimore Orioles and Hunter Greene of the Cincinnati Reds.

Game Details

Venue and Odds Overview

  • Date and Time: Friday, May 3, 2024
  • Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
  • Odds: Both teams at -110 (Decimal odds: 1.91)

Always ensure to check the latest MLB odds on various sportsbooks as they might fluctuate before the game starts.

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Starting Pitchers Comparison

Cole Irvin (Baltimore Orioles)

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 3.49
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 4.36
  • xFIP: 4.19
  • K/9: 5.72
  • BB/9: 2.22
  • WHIP: 1.24
  • GB/FB: 1.47
  • xERA: 4.21

Hunter Greene (Cincinnati Reds)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 3.63
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 3.26
  • xFIP: 3.75
  • K/9: 10.9
  • BB/9: 3.12
  • WHIP: 1.1
  • GB/FB: 0.85
  • xERA: 2.51

Analyzing Team Strengths

Bullpen Performance

  • Baltimore Orioles: Ranked 3rd
  • Cincinnati Reds: Ranked 13th

The Orioles’ bullpen outranks the Reds significantly, suggesting a stronger late-game performance capability from Baltimore.

Offensive Matchup

  • Overall Rank:
  • Baltimore Orioles: 3
  • Cincinnati Reds: 26
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers:
  • Baltimore Orioles: 3
  • Cincinnati Reds: 17
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers:
  • Baltimore Orioles: 3
  • Cincinnati Reds: 27

Baltimore’s consistent high rankings against both left and right-handed pitchers suggest a formidable offensive lineup, especially against Greene’s right-handed pitches.

Orioles vs Reds Prediction

MLB Betting Model Insights

Probabilities and Predicted Odds

  • Baltimore Orioles (Cole Irvin): 57.21% chance to win; Projected Odds: -134 (Decimal: 1.75)
  • Cincinnati Reds (Hunter Greene): 42.78% chance to win; Projected Odds: 134 (Decimal: 2.34)

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: Baltimore Orioles to win
  • Pitcher: Cole Irvin
  • Odds: -110
  • Value: Good (Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 1.02)

Conclusion: Orioles vs Reds Prediction

Leverage this Orioles vs Reds prediction as a guide but never blindly follow sports picks. Always shop around for the best MLB baseball betting odds and take advantage of any bonuses and promotions available during the baseball betting season. For those interested in advancing their betting skills, consider exploring sports betting courses or our MLB betting model available in Google Sheets.

Remember, the true advantage in sports betting comes from informed, analytical decisions, not just following the crowd.

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