Orioles vs Reds Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Baltimore Orioles a 58.77% probability of winning against the Cincinnati Reds, with projected odds of -143. This Orioles vs Reds prediction suggests good value on the Orioles at -109, highlighting a strong betting opportunity in this exciting matchup.


On Sunday, May 5, 2024, the baseball world turns its eyes to the exciting matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and the Cincinnati Reds at the Great American Ball Park. This Orioles vs Reds prediction delves into the intricacies of the game, focusing on the starting pitchers, Dean Kremer of the Orioles and Nick Lodolo of the Reds. With both teams ready to battle it out, let’s explore the key statistics, odds, and betting insights for this anticipated contest.

Game Details

Date and Venue

  • Date: Sunday, May 5, 2024
  • Venue: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati

Odds Overview

  • Baltimore Orioles: Decimal Odds: 1.92 | US Odds: -109
  • Cincinnati Reds: Decimal Odds: 1.85 | US Odds: -118
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Starting Pitchers

  • Dean Kremer – Baltimore Orioles
  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 4.19
  • Nick Lodolo – Cincinnati Reds
  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 1.88

Note: Odds can change, so it’s always crucial to check the latest MLB odds across various sportsbooks.

Pitching Matchup Analysis

Dean Kremer vs Nick Lodolo: A Statistical Breakdown

  • Dean Kremer (Orioles)
  • SIERA: 3.85
  • xFIP: 3.89
  • K/9: 8.13
  • BB/9: 2.62
  • WHIP: 1.08
  • GB/FB: 1.05
  • xERA: 5.7
  • Nick Lodolo (Reds)
  • SIERA: 2.59
  • xFIP: 2.83
  • K/9: 11.63
  • BB/9: 2.25
  • WHIP: 0.88
  • GB/FB: 1.25
  • xERA: 3.13

Key Takeaways

Nick Lodolo’s impressive strikeout rates and lower xERA highlight his dominance on the mound, contrasting with Dean Kremer’s solid yet less spectacular performance metrics.

Orioles vs Reds Prediction

Team Matchup and Strategy

Bullpen Strength

  • Orioles: Ranked 2nd
  • Reds: Ranked 12th

Offensive Capabilities

  • Overall Hitting Performance
  • Orioles: Ranked 28th
  • Against Left-Handed Pitchers: Ranked 2nd
  • Against Right-Handed Pitchers: Ranked 4th
  • Reds: Ranked 5th overall, but weaker against left-handers (22nd) and right-handers (27th).

MLB Betting Model and Prediction

Betting Model Insights

According to our MLB betting model:

  • Baltimore Orioles (Dean Kremer) Probability: 58.77%
  • Cincinnati Reds (Nick Lodolo) Probability: 41.23%
  • Projected Odds for Orioles: -143 (Decimal: 1.70)
  • Projected Odds for Reds: +143 (Decimal: 2.43)

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: Baltimore Orioles
  • Pitcher: Dean Kremer
  • Odds: -109
  • Value: Good (Adjusted Kelly Criterion Value: 1.40)

Conclusion: Orioles vs Reds Prediction

In this Orioles vs Reds prediction, the statistical analysis and betting model favor the Baltimore Orioles as the likely victors in a clash marked by intriguing pitcher matchups and distinct team strengths. Remember, sports betting should be approached with caution and strategy. Always verify the latest odds, and consider leveraging any available bonuses and promotions. For those interested in advancing their betting skills analytically, explore sports betting courses and models to refine your technique.

Final Note

While predictions provide valuable insights, they should not replace personal analysis. Always shop around for the best MLB odds and make informed decisions based on comprehensive data and expert advice.

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