Orioles vs Nationals Prediction

In the Orioles vs Nationals prediction on May 7, our MLB betting model projects a 67.48% win probability for the Orioles with Corbin Burnes on the mound. Despite -222 odds, Burnes’ consistency and the Orioles’ powerful lineup give them the edge over Trevor Williams and the Nationals’ inconsistent offense.


In a highly anticipated showdown at Nationals Park, the Baltimore Orioles will face the Washington Nationals on Tuesday, May 7, 2024. The Orioles vs Nationals prediction centers around the starting pitching duel between Corbin Burnes for the Orioles and Trevor Williams for the Nationals.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

  • Away Team: Baltimore Orioles (Odds: 1.45 | -222)
  • Home Team: Washington Nationals (Odds: 2.80 | 180)
  • Ballpark: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.

Note: Odds are subject to change. Always compare the best MLB odds across multiple sportsbooks.

MB MLB 728x90 Jpg

Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Corbin Burnes – Baltimore Orioles

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 2.61
  • SIERA: 3.24
  • xFIP: 3.14
  • K/9: 8.93
  • BB/9: 1.96
  • WHIP: 0.92
  • GB/FB: 1.33
  • xERA: 2.93

Burnes is the ace of the Orioles’ pitching staff. His impressive strikeout numbers (K/9 of 8.93) and pinpoint control (BB/9 of 1.96) highlight his dominance on the mound. His WHIP of 0.92 reflects his ability to limit baserunners effectively.

Trevor Williams – Washington Nationals

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 2.27
  • SIERA: 4.61
  • xFIP: 4.31
  • K/9: 6.25
  • BB/9: 3.41
  • WHIP: 1.17
  • GB/FB: 1.38
  • xERA: 3.28

Williams has shown promise, posting a respectable ERA of 2.27. However, his higher SIERA (4.61) and xFIP (4.31) indicate potential regression. With a K/9 of 6.25 and BB/9 of 3.41, Williams has had difficulties with command and consistency.

Bullpen Matchup

  • Baltimore Orioles: Ranked 2nd
  • Washington Nationals: Ranked 23rd

The Orioles have a significant advantage in bullpen performance, boasting a top-tier relief staff.

Offensive Matchup

Baltimore Orioles

  • Overall Rank: 2
  • Vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 1
  • Vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 3

Washington Nationals

  • Overall Rank: 15
  • Vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 22
  • Vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 9

The Orioles have a powerful lineup that excels against both lefties and righties. Their offense should create challenges for the Nationals’ pitching staff.

Orioles vs Nationals Prediction

Betting Model Probabilities for Orioles vs Nationals Prediction

  • Baltimore Orioles (Corbin Burnes): 67.48% (Projected Odds: -207 | Decimal: 1.48)
  • Washington Nationals (Trevor Williams): 32.50% (Projected Odds: 208 | Decimal: 3.08)

Recommended MLB Pick: Baltimore Orioles

Despite the odds not showing significant value, the Orioles hold the edge here. Corbin Burnes’ elite pitching combined with the Orioles’ strong offense and bullpen should prove decisive.

Side: Baltimore Orioles
Pitcher: Corbin Burnes
Odds: -222
Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: -0.48
Confidence: No value, but strong opinion

Note: For final MLB bets and more detailed first-half picks, visit the “MLB Picks” page or access our MLB betting model in Google Sheets. Learn how to calculate odds and make your projections.

Conclusion: Orioles vs Nationals Prediction

Use this Orioles vs Nationals prediction to guide your betting decisions, but always shop for the best odds. Don’t blindly follow any picks and take advantage of bonuses during baseball season. For more insights into betting models and analytics, explore our sports betting courses to learn how to bet like a pro.

Access my free content and join exclusive, private email circle for strategic advice, personal stories, and expert tips.

No spam. Betting value only.