Orioles vs Cardinals Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the St. Louis Cardinals a 56.23% win probability against the Baltimore Orioles on May 20, 2024. With Sonny Gray on the mound, the Cardinals hold a slight edge. Bet confidently but always shop for the best odds. For more insights, visit our MLB picks page.


Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Orioles vs Cardinals Prediction is the focus as we analyze the upcoming matchup on Monday, May 20, 2024. With Corbin Burnes pitching for the Baltimore Orioles and Sonny Gray on the mound for the St. Louis Cardinals, this game promises to be a thrilling contest. Our comprehensive breakdown covers pitching, bullpen strengths, offensive matchups, and expert betting insights to help you make informed decisions. Dive into the data and discover our top MLB betting pick for this exciting game at Busch Stadium.

  • Away Team: Baltimore Orioles (1.96 Decimal odds, -104 US odds)
  • Home Team: St Louis Cardinals (1.82 Decimal odds, -122 US odds)
  • Ballpark: Busch Stadium

Note that odds can change. Always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks.

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Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Baltimore Orioles: Corbin Burnes

  • Hand: Right Handed
  • ERA: 2.68
  • SIERA: 3.5
  • xFIP: 3.3
  • K/9: 8.22
  • BB/9: 2.35
  • WHIP: 1.01
  • GB/FB: 1.63
  • xERA: 2.9

St Louis Cardinals: Sonny Gray

  • Hand: Right Handed
  • ERA: 3.05
  • SIERA: 2.58
  • xFIP: 2.45
  • K/9: 11.54
  • BB/9: 1.74
  • WHIP: 1.06
  • GB/FB: 1.14
  • xERA: 3.36

When comparing both pitchers, Corbin Burnes and Sonny Gray bring unique strengths to the mound. Burnes’ impressive ERA of 2.68 is complemented by his solid SIERA of 3.5 and xFIP of 3.3, showing consistency and control. His strikeout rate (K/9) stands at 8.22, and he maintains a low walk rate (BB/9) of 2.35, paired with a WHIP of 1.01. Gray, on the other hand, has a higher strikeout rate (11.54 K/9) and a lower walk rate (1.74 BB/9), reflecting his dominance and precision. His SIERA and xFIP are notably lower than Burnes’, indicating a slightly better underlying performance.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

  • Baltimore Orioles Bullpen Rank: 7
  • St Louis Cardinals Bullpen Rank: 3

The St. Louis Cardinals boast a superior bullpen, ranked third in the league, compared to the Orioles’ seventh position. This edge in bullpen strength could be pivotal in the latter innings of the game.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

  • Baltimore Orioles Overall Rank: 5
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 1
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 12
  • St Louis Cardinals Overall Rank: 21
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 28
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 9

Offensively, the Orioles have a significant advantage, especially against left-handed pitchers where they rank first. While their rank against right-handed pitchers is twelfth, they still outpace the Cardinals, who rank twenty-eighth against lefties and ninth against right-handers.

Orioles vs Cardinals Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability for Orioles vs Cardinals Prediction

  • Baltimore Orioles (Corbin Burnes): 43.77%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: 128
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 2.28
  • St Louis Cardinals (Sonny Gray): 56.23%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: -128
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 1.78

According to our MLB betting model, the St. Louis Cardinals have a 56.23% chance of winning, making them the favored team in this matchup.

Recommended MLB Pick Based on Our Betting Model Analysis

  • Side: St. Louis Cardinals
  • Pitcher: Sonny Gray
  • Odds: -122
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.28 (tiny value)
  • Confidence: Medium

Our analysis suggests a slight edge for the St. Louis Cardinals, driven by Sonny Gray’s strong advanced metrics and the team’s superior bullpen. Despite the tiny value indicated by the Kelly Criterion, the Cardinals are the recommended pick.

Conclusion for Orioles vs Cardinals Prediction

Utilize this Orioles vs Cardinals Prediction to guide your betting strategy, but always shop for the best MLB Baseball Betting Odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the season. For more detailed analysis and to learn how to bet analytically using sports betting models, check out our MLB picks page or consider enrolling in our sports betting courses.

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