Welcome to MLB betting model projections and betting analysis, where the NYY vs Rays prediction takes center stage. I’m excited to bring insights from my private MLB model and an additional AI-based prediction for this upcoming game.

Welcome to MLB betting model projections and predictions from my private spreadsheets and additionally AI ChatGPT prediction for this game. This prediction is made by my private MLB betting model, which made more than 40 units in just 4 months, beating the closing line more than 70% of the time with high-value best MLB bets beating the line more than 90% of times with a positive CLV of +4.52%.


Betting Odds

The betting odds are set as follows:

  • New York Yankees: +158 (Decimal odds: 2.58)
  • Tampa Bay Rays: -172 (Decimal odds: 1.58)

Date: August 26, 2023 Location: Tropicana Field

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Team Comparison

New York Yankees

The New York Yankees have played 128 games this season. Their stats are as follows:

  • Runs per game (R/G): 4.25 (Rank 24)
  • Home Runs (HR): 178 (Rank 7)
  • Runs Batted In (RBI): 524 (Rank 24)
  • Stolen Bases (SB): 79 (Rank 21)
  • Batting Average (BA): 0.23 (Rank 30)
  • On-Base Percentage (OBP): 0.305 (Rank 27)
  • Slugging Percentage (SLG): 0.403 (Rank 20)
  • On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 0.709 (Rank 23)
  • On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+): 94 (Rank 100)

The league average for the respective stats are as follows:

  • R/G: 4.602
  • HR: 154.8
  • RBI: 567.97
  • SB: 91.07
  • BA: 0.2487
  • OBP: 0.3199
  • SLG: 0.414
  • OPS: 0.7339
  • OPS+: 99.93

Tampa Bay Rays

On the other side, the Tampa Bay Rays have played 130 games. Their stats are:

  • R/G: 5.34 (Rank 4)
  • HR: 190 (Rank 4)
  • RBI: 666 (Rank 5)
  • SB: 133 (Rank 3)
  • BA: 0.26 (Rank 4)
  • OBP: 0.331 (Rank 4)
  • SLG: 0.449 (Rank 4)
  • OPS: 0.78 (Rank 4)
  • OPS+: 115 (Rank 100)


The New York Yankees will start with Clarke Schmidt (R) on the mound, who has a record of 8 wins and 7 losses in 25 games started, an Earned Run Average (ERA) of 4.71, 8.83 strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9), 2.57 walks per 9 innings (BB/9), a WHIP of 1.35, an Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) of 4.3, an Expected Earned Run Average (xERA) of 4.21, a Ground Ball to Fly Ball ratio (GB/FB) of 1.14, and a Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) of 4.18.

The Tampa Bay Rays will start with Tyler Glasnow (R) on the mound, who has a record of 6 wins and 4 losses in 14 games started, an ERA of 3.35, 12.27 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, a WHIP of 1.09, an xFIP of 2.79, an xERA of 4.12, a GB/FB ratio of 1.57, and a SIERA of 3.07.

Bullpen Rankings

My Bullpen Rankings out of 30 teams are:

  • New York Yankees: 11
  • Tampa Bay Rays: 21

MLB Betting Model Prediction

My MLB betting model prediction for the full game is:

  • New York Yankees: Projected MLB model win%: 31.79%, Projected US odds: +215, Projected decimal odds: 3.15
  • Tampa Bay Rays: Projected MLB model win%: 68.20%, Projected US odds: -215, Projected decimal odds: 1.47
  • Projected Over Under – total runs for full game: 8.76

Full Game Moneyline Value

The Full Game moneyline value is on the Tampa Bay Rays based on my MLB betting model predictions and betting analysis. However, the First Half Betting value is a Not Qualified bet based on my MLB betting model predictions and betting analysis.

BEST MLB BET: Tampa Bay Rays (Glasnow) -172

AI Betting Prediction

The bookies odds are:

  • New York Yankees: +158 (Decimal odds: 2.58)
  • Tampa Bay Rays: -172 (Decimal odds: 1.58)

Considering all the statistics and data provided, my AI prediction would also favor the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have a stronger offensive performance this season, as indicated by their higher R/G, HR, RBI, SB, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+ compared to the Yankees and the league average. Additionally, starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow has a better record and lower ERA, WHIP, xFIP, xERA, and SIERA than Yankees’ starting pitcher Clarke Schmidt.

In conclusion, both my MLB betting model and AI prediction indicate that the Tampa Bay Rays have a higher probability of winning the game. Therefore, the value lies in betting on the Tampa Bay Rays at -172.

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