Nationals vs Red Sox Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Boston Red Sox a 67.78% win probability against the Washington Nationals in the Nationals vs Red Sox Prediction. With Tanner Houck on the mound and a potent offense, Boston offers good value at -135 odds. Patrick Corbin and the Nationals hold a 32.21% chance at +210 odds.


In this captivating Friday night MLB matchup, our focus is on the Nationals vs. Red Sox Prediction as the Washington Nationals face off against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. The Red Sox, led by Tanner Houck, host Patrick Corbin and the Nationals in what promises to be a fascinating battle of pitching styles.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

  • Date: Friday, May 10, 2024
  • Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
  • Sportsbook Odds:
  • Washington Nationals: 2.07 (Decimal), +107 (US)
  • Boston Red Sox: 1.74 (Decimal), -135 (US)
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Starting Pitchers’ Advanced Stats Comparison

Patrick Corbin (Washington Nationals):

  • Hand: Left-handed
  • ERA: 6.45
  • SIERA: 4.82
  • xFIP: 4.40
  • K/9: 5.97
  • BB/9: 3.58
  • WHIP: 1.81
  • GB/FB: 1.62
  • xERA: 6.08

Tanner Houck (Boston Red Sox):

  • Hand: Right-handed
  • ERA: 1.99
  • SIERA: 2.79
  • xFIP: 2.69
  • K/9: 9.13
  • BB/9: 1.39
  • WHIP: 0.97
  • GB/FB: 2.34
  • xERA: 3.24

Pitching Analysis

Patrick Corbin has struggled with a high ERA (6.45), walking too many batters and not striking out enough. His advanced stats suggest a high xERA (6.08) and WHIP (1.81), indicating that he’s been allowing runners to reach base frequently.

In contrast, Tanner Houck has shined for Boston with impressive advanced stats like a low SIERA (2.79) and high strikeout rate (9.13 K/9). His WHIP of 0.97 and low BB/9 (1.39) suggest excellent control and an ability to limit base runners.

Bullpen Matchup

  • Washington Nationals: Ranked 14th overall
  • Boston Red Sox: Ranked 11th overall

The Red Sox bullpen has a slight edge in this matchup, adding further strength to their pitching staff.

Nationals vs Red Sox Prediction

Offensive Matchup

  • Washington Nationals:
  • Overall Rank: 16th
  • Vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 25th
  • Vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 12th
  • Boston Red Sox:
  • Overall Rank: 6th
  • Vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 7th
  • Vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 6th

The Red Sox have one of the strongest offenses in the league, ranked 6th overall and equally adept at hitting both left and right-handed pitchers. The Nationals, however, have struggled against lefties (25th) but fare better against right-handed pitchers (12th).

Betting Model Prediction

According to our betting model analysis:

  • Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin): 32.21% probability (MLB Model Projected Odds: +210, Decimal: 3.10)
  • Boston Red Sox (Tanner Houck): 67.78% probability (MLB Model Projected Odds: -210, Decimal: 1.48)

Recommended MLB Pick

The betting model shows good value in picking the Boston Red Sox with Tanner Houck at -135 odds. This makes for a solid choice with confidence using an adjusted Kelly Criterion calculation value of 2.42.

Conclusion for Nationals vs Red Sox Prediction

When placing your bets, remember that the Nationals vs. Red Sox Prediction should guide your decision but never blindly follow any single sports pick. Always shop around different sportsbooks for the best MLB odds and use the available promotions. To learn more about betting like a pro using analytical sports betting models, consider exploring our sports betting courses or checking out the “MLB Picks” page.

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