Nationals vs Phillies Prediction

For the Nationals vs Phillies Prediction, our MLB betting model gives the Phillies a 71.60% chance of winning with Zack Wheeler on the mound. This translates to projected odds of -252, highlighting the Phillies’ strong advantage in pitching, bullpen, and offense. Bet confidently with these insights!


Nationals vs Phillies Prediction is the key to making informed betting decisions for the upcoming MLB game on Friday, May 17, 2024. This matchup features the Washington Nationals taking on the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, with starting pitchers Jake Irvin and Zack Wheeler facing off. Let’s dive into the game info, odds, and detailed analysis to provide you with the best betting insights.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Decimal OddsUS OddsBallpark
Away TeamWashington Nationals3.28+228
Home TeamPhiladelphia Phillies1.39-256Citizens Bank Park

Odds can change, so always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks for the latest updates.

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Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Washington Nationals: Jake Irvin

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 3.55
  • SIERA: 3.79
  • xFIP: 3.57
  • K/9: 7.09
  • BB/9: 1.58
  • WHIP: 1.09
  • GB/FB: 1.22
  • xERA: 4.72

Jake Irvin has been solid for the Nationals, showcasing a respectable ERA of 3.55. His advanced stats suggest a consistent performance with a SIERA of 3.79 and an xFIP of 3.57. Irvin’s control has been exceptional with a low BB/9 of 1.58, and he maintains a WHIP of 1.09. However, his xERA of 4.72 indicates that he might have been a bit fortunate this season.

Philadelphia Phillies: Zack Wheeler

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 2.53
  • SIERA: 2.96
  • xFIP: 2.87
  • K/9: 10.97
  • BB/9: 2.7
  • WHIP: 0.99
  • GB/FB: 1.44
  • xERA: 2.8

Zack Wheeler has been outstanding for the Phillies, with an ERA of 2.53 and advanced metrics that reinforce his dominance. His SIERA of 2.96 and xFIP of 2.87 reflect his elite pitching skills, coupled with an impressive K/9 of 10.97. Wheeler’s control is solid with a BB/9 of 2.7, and his WHIP of 0.99 highlights his ability to limit base runners. His xERA of 2.8 further indicates his consistent performance.

Bullpen Matchup

  • Washington Nationals: Ranked 18th
  • Philadelphia Phillies: Ranked 6th

The Phillies hold a significant advantage in the bullpen matchup, being ranked 6th compared to the Nationals’ 18th. This edge in bullpen strength could be crucial in the later innings of the game.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

Overall RankRank vs Left-Handed PitchersRank vs Right-Handed Pitchers
Washington Nationals232717
Philadelphia Phillies797

Offensively, the Phillies are clearly superior, with an overall rank of 7th compared to the Nationals’ 23rd. The Phillies maintain consistent performance against both left-handed and right-handed pitchers, making them a formidable offensive unit.

Nationals vs Phillies Prediction

Betting Model Probability for Nationals vs Phillies Prediction

Baseball Betting Model ProbabilityMLB Model Projected US OddsMLB Model Projected Decimal Odds
Washington Nationals (Jake Irvin)28.40%+2523.52
Philadelphia Phillies (Zack Wheeler)71.60%-2521.40

Our MLB betting model gives the Phillies a 71.60% chance of winning this game, translating to projected odds of -252 (1.40 in decimal). The Nationals have a 28.40% probability, with projected odds of +252 (3.52 in decimal).

Recommended MLB Pick Based on Our Betting Model

  • Side: Philadelphia Phillies
  • Pitcher: Zack Wheeler
  • Odds: -256
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: -0.12 (no value, just bold opinion)

Given the significant edge in pitching, bullpen, and offensive matchups, our recommended MLB pick is the Philadelphia Phillies. However, the adjusted Kelly criterion suggests no value, indicating this is more of a strong opinion rather than a value bet.

Conclusion for Nationals vs Phillies Prediction

Use the Nationals vs Phillies Prediction to inform your betting strategy, but remember to always shop for the best MLB Baseball Betting Odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions. Betting with a model-based approach can enhance your success. For final bets and detailed picks, visit our “MLB Picks” page or get our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets to make your own projections. Betting analytically is the key to long-term success in sports betting.


This comprehensive analysis ensures you have all the information needed to make an informed bet on the Nationals vs Phillies game. Happy betting!

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