Nationals vs Mets Prediction July 10

The Nationals vs Mets prediction for July 10, 2024, reveals a 63.01% win probability for the Mets with Luis Severino pitching, versus 36.98% for the Nationals with Patrick Corbin. According to our MLB betting model, the Mets are favored, reflecting their superior performance and advanced stats.


The upcoming game on Wednesday, July 10, 2024, between the Washington Nationals and the New York Mets is drawing significant attention from baseball enthusiasts and bettors alike. With Patrick Corbin pitching for the Nationals and Luis Severino taking the mound for the Mets, this Nationals vs Mets prediction will delve into the details that could shape the outcome of this intriguing matchup. This analysis will provide you with all the necessary insights to make an informed betting decision, ensuring you have the edge when placing your wagers.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Game Information

  • Date: Wednesday, July 10, 2024
  • Ballpark: Citi Field

Sportsbook Odds

  • Washington Nationals: 2.69 (US odds: +169)
  • New York Mets: 1.54 (US odds: -185)

Note that odds can change frequently, so it’s essential to always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks before placing your bets.

Starting Pitchers

Washington Nationals: Patrick Corbin

  • Hand: Left-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 5.49

New York Mets: Luis Severino

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 3.83
MB MLB 728x90 Jpg

Advanced MLB Stats Comparison

Patrick Corbin (Washington Nationals)

  • SIERA: 4.77
  • xFIP: 4.46
  • K/9: 6.12
  • BB/9: 3.15
  • WHIP: 1.53
  • GB/FB: 1.41
  • xERA: 6.23

Patrick Corbin has struggled this season with an elevated ERA of 5.49. His SIERA of 4.77 and xFIP of 4.46 indicate some potential for improvement, but his strikeout rate (K/9) of 6.12 and walk rate (BB/9) of 3.15 suggest ongoing control issues. Additionally, his WHIP of 1.53 and ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB/FB) of 1.41 show that he allows a lot of baserunners and doesn’t induce a high number of ground balls.

Luis Severino (New York Mets)

  • SIERA: 4.47
  • xFIP: 4.33
  • K/9: 6.71
  • BB/9: 2.96
  • WHIP: 1.2
  • GB/FB: 1.4
  • xERA: 3.83

Luis Severino, on the other hand, has been more consistent with an ERA of 3.83. His SIERA of 4.47 and xFIP of 4.33 are slightly better than Corbin’s, and his strikeout rate of 6.71 K/9 coupled with a walk rate of 2.96 BB/9 suggests better control. Severino’s WHIP of 1.2 and GB/FB ratio of 1.4 also indicate a more reliable performance, allowing fewer baserunners and maintaining a similar ground ball rate to Corbin.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

Washington Nationals

  • Bullpen Rank: 20th

New York Mets

  • Bullpen Rank: 4th

The New York Mets boast a superior bullpen, ranked 4th overall, compared to the Nationals’ bullpen, which is ranked 20th. This disparity suggests that the Mets are more likely to maintain leads and perform better in late-game situations.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

Overall Offensive Rankings

  • Washington Nationals: 17th
  • New York Mets: 2nd

Performance vs. Left-Handed Pitchers

  • Washington Nationals: 20th
  • New York Mets: 2nd

Performance vs. Right-Handed Pitchers

  • Washington Nationals: 15th
  • New York Mets: 7th

Offensively, the Mets have a significant edge over the Nationals. Ranked 2nd overall, the Mets are especially strong against left-handed pitchers, ranking 2nd in the league, while the Nationals struggle more, ranking 20th against lefties. The Mets’ prowess against right-handed pitchers is also notable, ranking 7th, which further cements their advantage in this matchup.

Nationals vs Mets Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

Nationals vs Mets Prediction

  • Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin): 36.98% (MLB Model Projected US odds: +170, Decimal odds: 2.70)
  • New York Mets (Luis Severino): 63.01% (MLB Model Projected US odds: -170, Decimal odds: 1.59)

According to our MLB betting model, the New York Mets have a 63.01% probability of winning this game, compared to the Washington Nationals’ 36.98%. This prediction aligns closely with the sportsbook odds, reflecting the Mets’ superior performance and favorable matchup metrics.

Recommended MLB Pick

Moneyline Value

  • Side: Washington Nationals
  • Pitcher: Patrick Corbin
  • Odds: +169
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: -0.03
  • Confidence: No value, just bold opinion

Despite the statistical edge favoring the Mets, the moneyline value for the Washington Nationals at +169 presents a bold betting opportunity. However, the adjusted Kelly criterion value of -0.03 suggests caution, as there is no significant value identified.

Conclusion for Nationals vs Mets Prediction

Using this Nationals vs Mets prediction can help guide your betting strategy for this exciting matchup. Always shop around for the best MLB baseball betting odds and take advantage of promotions and bonuses during the betting season. Remember, betting smartly and analytically is key to long-term success. For more in-depth analysis and betting strategies, check out our MLB picks page or learn how to build your own betting models with our sports betting courses.

In summary, while the Mets appear to have the upper hand in this Nationals vs Mets prediction, bold bettors might consider the Nationals’ moneyline for its higher payout potential. Always bet responsibly and continue to refine your betting models for the best results.

Access my free content and join exclusive, private email circle for strategic advice, personal stories, and expert tips.

No spam. Betting value only.