Date: Sunday, April 28, 2024
Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore

Nationals vs Marlins Prediction

Our MLB betting model tips the scales with a 56.74% probability favoring the Washington Nationals over the Miami Marlins. Despite sportsbooks leaning towards the Marlins, our analysis indicates strong value in backing the Nationals in this clash. Check the latest odds for optimal betting value.


As we gear up for another exciting matchup in Major League Baseball, the Nationals vs Marlins prediction takes center stage. This game, scheduled for Sunday, April 28, 2024, at loanDepot park, features a pivotal clash between Washington Nationals’ Patrick Corbin and Miami Marlins’ Ryan Weathers. With the Marlins favored in the sportsbooks and the Nationals looking to prove the odds wrong, this game promises to be a thrilling encounter.

Game Details and Initial Odds

Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins: Key Stats

  • Date: Sunday, April 28, 2024
  • Venue: loanDepot park
  • Odds: Washington Nationals +129 | Miami Marlins -141

Note: Betting odds are subject to change; always verify with your sportsbook.

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Pitching Matchup Analysis

Patrick Corbin (Nationals) vs Ryan Weathers (Marlins)

Patrick Corbin:

  • ERA: 6.51
  • SIERA: 4.8
  • xFIP: 4.42
  • K/9: 5.86
  • BB/9: 3.58
  • WHIP: 1.81
  • Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio (GB/FB): 1.57
  • Expected ERA (xERA): 5.96

Ryan Weathers:

  • ERA: 3.16
  • SIERA: 4.39
  • xFIP: 4.49
  • K/9: 8.06
  • BB/9: 4.21
  • WHIP: 1.4
  • Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio (GB/FB): 1.42
  • Expected ERA (xERA): 4.35

Ryan Weathers holds a significant advantage with a stronger ERA and strikeout rate, suggesting he might handle the Nationals’ lineup more effectively than Corbin manages the Marlins.

Team Offensive Comparison

Hitting Power and Vulnerabilities

  • Washington Nationals Overall Rank: 22
  • Against Left-Handed Pitchers: 27
  • Against Right-Handed Pitchers: 8
  • Miami Marlins Overall Rank: 30
  • Against Left-Handed Pitchers: 29
  • Against Right-Handed Pitchers: 29

The Nationals show more versatility and effectiveness, especially against right-handed pitchers, indicating potential leverage points for today’s game.

Bullpen Strength and Weaknesses

  • Washington Nationals Bullpen Rank: 22
  • Miami Marlins Bullpen Rank: 24

Both teams struggle with bullpen reliability, which could play a pivotal role in late-game scenarios.

Nationals vs Marlins Prediction

MLB Betting Model Insights

Prediction Probabilities and Betting Odds

  • Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin):
  • Probability: 56.74%
  • Model Projected US Odds: -131
  • Model Projected Decimal Odds: 1.76
  • Miami Marlins (Ryan Weathers):
  • Probability: 43.26%
  • Model Projected US Odds: 131
  • Model Projected Decimal Odds: 2.31

Despite the sportsbooks favoring the Marlins, our MLB betting model suggests a stronger probability for a Nationals win, making it a good value bet.

Recommended MLB Pick

Washington Nationals to win over Miami Marlins

  • Pitcher: Patrick Corbin
  • Odds: +129
  • Kelly Criterion Value: 2.32
  • Confidence Level: Good Value

Conclusion: Nationals vs Marlins Prediction

While Nationals vs Marlins predictions provide a guideline, always approach sports betting with due diligence and personal analysis. For more detailed betting strategies and personalized picks, consider exploring further resources like MLB betting models and sports betting courses. Always shop for the best odds and take full advantage of any betting bonuses and promotions during the baseball season.

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