MLB Predictions: Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins

Friday, September 9, 2022 08:10 PM (ET)

Cal Quantrill vs Dylan Bundy

Cal Quantrill and Dylan Bundy will be on the mound on Friday in a game between home team Minnesota Twins and away team Cleveland Guardians.

The Cleveland Guardians hold a 1-1/2 game lead over the Minnesota Twins in Central Division before heading into battle this week. With three games scheduled, it’ll be an important one for both teams as they fight to keep control of what could potentially become just fate’s own teasingly close playoff race!

Pitching Analysis

Starting Pitchers

The Guardians will send Cal Quantrill (11-5, 3.55 ERA) to the mound to take on Twins right-hander Dylan Bundy (8-6, 4.34 ERA).

Quantrill has five starts against Twins in his career and is 2-0 with a 3.79 ERA in eight career appearances. He won a game on June 29 when he allowed three runs on eight hits in eight innings. That was a game against today’s opponent Bundy.

Cal Quantrill (11-5, 3.55 ERA) will pitch the series opener for Cleveland. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.79 ERA in eight career appearances (five starts) against the Twins, including a win on June 29 when he yielded three runs on eight hits in eight innings.

Bundy on the other side has also very solid record against the Cleveland. He is 4-1 with a 2.96 ERA in six career games (five starts) against Cleveland. But in his last game agains them he gave up three runs (two earned) on six hits in five innings.

We have pretty even pitching matchup in this game, even if we check other pitcher metrics.

Bullpen

Both Twins and Guardians have solid bullpens. Cleveland Guardians relievers combined ERA of 3.10 this season and Minnesota Twins ERA of 3.88. Despite Twins relievers struggles in last couple of games (ERA 4.70 in last 10 games), they have very solid numbers at home – ERA 3.34.

And if we check Skilled Interactive ERA, Twins SIER is 3.07 and Cleveland SIERA is 3.08, which makes pretty even match up here too.

Hitting

Two teams will face right handed pitchers most of the game. Minnesota Twins are slightly better team here. They score 4.62 runs per game versus RHP compared to Guardians, who score 4.33.

Both teams struggled lately, but it looks like that Cleveland is struggling offensively. They score only 2.33 runs in last 10 games, while Minnesota Twins 3.71.

Minnesota Twins is ranked 5th in overall hitting and Cleveland 20th in the league, when we take into account advanced metrics and ballpark factors.

MLB Betting Model Percentages

My baseball betting model with the record [272-224, +36.07 units] this season projected odds at:

• Cleveland Guardians -108
• San Diego Padres -108

Most sportsbooks have this game at close to fifty fifty. But my MLB betting model gives 57.25% of chance to Minnesota Twins in this game. Which is 7.76% difference between my winning percentages and sportsbooks percentages.

Bet of the Day

This is a close game between two teams, which are fighting for a playoff spot. But teams struggled lately. Clevelabd lost 6 out of last 8 games and Minnesota won only 2 out of 7 games.

No team will have significant advantage in pitching, but I Minnesota will have advantage in two things:

• Home field advantage
• Hitting

Because of that my recommended bet in this game is:

• Minnesota Twins -108 (1.25 units)

Note also, that risk is the total amount risked on a single bet. For full card and all my today’s MLB bets, check my Free MLB Picks Page.

Play responsibly and never follow blindly anyone. Always make your own research before you bet. I also recommend to learn how sports betting works, and how to use numbers in betting, before you risk any of your money.

Successful betting!