Monday, September 12
The MLB season is in full swing and we have another slate of games to predict today. My MLB betting model has identified one value bet that could make you some money today.
Yesterday baseball betting model went 3-1, +0.82 units and it’s more than +36 units to the season:
279-229, +36.13 units, Yield: +5.51%, CLV: +2.67%, BTL: 75.05%
We have smaller MLB gameday tonight with only 9 games and these are estimated betting percentages for all games:
Texas Rangers +116
The Texas Rangers will take on the Miami Marlins in the first game of a doubleheader on Monday. The Rangers will start right-hander Glenn Otto (6-8, 4.80 ERA) while the Marlins will counter with lefty Trevor Rogers (4-11, 5.51).
The Rangers are coming off a win against the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday. They will look to get another win against Marlins, another team that has struggled all season. Miami Marlins are 2-8 in last 10 games and are 57-82 to the season, while Texas Rangers hold the record of 60-79 and losing 8 out of 10 games.
Miami Marlins will have small advantage at the start of the game with left handed Rogers on the mound against Glenn Otto. But both pitchers do not go deep into the game. Glenn Otto averaged 4.76 innings per game, while Trevor Rogers went 4.75 innings per game this season.
We can expect that the bullpen and hitting team will decide this game. This is the situation where Texas will have the advantage.
Texas score 4.2 runs per game this season. They’ve been especially good against left-handed pitchers, scoring 5.49 runs per game against them.
The Marlins, on the other hand, have only been scoring 3.9 runs per game this season.
Texas Rangers have better bullpen too and my baseball betting model gives Texas 52.01% of chance in the first game of the series.
With the plus moneyline odds at +116, we have a value with Texas, which makes them the best MLB bet today.