Mets vs Rays Prediction

In the upcoming Mets vs Rays showdown, our MLB betting model gives the New York Mets a slight edge with a 51.51% probability of winning. Betting on the Mets at +105 offers solid value, reflecting their strong bullpen and offensive capabilities against the Rays’ lineup.


As we look forward to the Sunday matchup on May 5, 2024, between the New York Mets and the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field, the Mets vs Rays Prediction becomes a focal point for MLB fans and bettors alike. With the Mets fielding right-hander Luis Severino and the Rays countering with Ryan Pepiot, we are set for a pitching duel that suggests a tight contest. Let’s dive into the numbers and factors that will influence this game.

Game Details and Odds Overview

  • Date and Time: Sunday, May 5, 2024
  • Venue: Tropicana Field, Home of the Tampa Bay Rays
  • Starting Pitchers:
  • New York Mets: Luis Severino (RHP) – ERA: 2.31
  • Tampa Bay Rays: Ryan Pepiot (RHP) – ERA: 3.12
  • Odds (As of now; remember odds might change):
  • New York Mets: Decimal: 2.05 | US: +105
  • Tampa Bay Rays: Decimal: 1.80 | US: -125
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Pitching Matchup Analysis

Luis Severino (New York Mets)

Severino brings to the mound a commendable ERA of 2.31 and a WHIP of 1.06. With a strikeout rate of 7.97 K/9 and a walk rate of 2.83 BB/9, his control and ability to get strikeouts when needed are evident. His SIERA of 3.71 and xFIP of 3.66 show a solid underlying performance, despite the higher ERA.

Ryan Pepiot (Tampa Bay Rays)

Pepiot counters with an impressive strikeout rate of 9.87 K/9 and an even better ERA of 3.12. His WHIP stands at an exceptional 0.87, indicating fewer hitters are getting on base against him. With a lower SIERA at 3.24 and an xFIP of 3.44, Pepiot demonstrates a potentially stronger underlying performance than Severino, despite the higher ERA.

Bullpen and Offensive Matchups

Bullpen Strength

  • New York Mets: Ranked 1st
  • Tampa Bay Rays: Ranked 25th

The Mets’ bullpen could be a decisive factor in this game, given their top rank, while the Rays might struggle with a bullpen ranked much lower in comparison.

Offensive Comparison

  • Mets: Overall Rank 13; better against RHP (Rank 10) than LHP (Rank 16).
  • Rays: Overall Rank 18; struggling comparably against both LHP (Rank 16) and RHP (Rank 19).
Mets vs Rays Prediction

MLB Betting Model Predictions

According to my MLB betting model:

  • New York Mets (Luis Severino): Probability 51.51%, Projected US odds -106, Decimal odds 1.94
  • Tampa Bay Rays (Ryan Pepiot): Probability 48.49%, Projected US odds 106, Decimal odds 2.06

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on the betting model analysis, a Moneyline bet on the New York Mets at +105 offers solid value. The adjusted Kelly Criterion calculation of 0.53 supports this with a robust confidence level.

Conclusion: Mets vs Rays Prediction

When making your Mets vs Rays Prediction, it’s crucial to consider all angles from pitching matchups to bullpen strength and hitting capabilities. While betting, always shop for the best MLB odds and take note of ongoing promotions. Remember, betting should be based on thorough analysis and not taken lightly. If you’re interested in deepening your understanding of MLB betting strategies, consider exploring sports betting courses that utilize analytical models.

Always check for updates and final picks as game day approaches to ensure the most informed betting decisions!

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