Mets vs Rays Prediction

Explore our latest Mets vs Rays prediction using advanced MLB betting model insights. The model gives the Mets a 55.42% win probability with recommended odds of -124, suggesting a solid value bet on them against the Rays. Perfect your strategy and check for the best odds before placing your bet.


This Mets vs Rays prediction for the upcoming game on Saturday, May 4, 2024, at Tropicana Field, delves into an intriguing MLB showdown. With Luis Severino starting for the New York Mets and Zack Littell for the Tampa Bay Rays, this game promises a battle of pitching prowess underpinned by compelling stats and odds.

Game Overview: Mets vs Rays

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Before delving deeper, let’s look at the odds provided by various sportsbooks. The New York Mets are listed with US odds of -105 and decimal odds of 1.95, suggesting a closely contested match. On the other hand, the home team, Tampa Bay Rays, are slightly favored with odds of -125 (US) and 1.80 (decimal).

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Starting Pitcher Comparison

Luis Severino (New York Mets)

  • ERA: 2.31
  • SIERA: 3.72
  • xFIP: 3.67
  • K/9: 7.97
  • BB/9: 2.83
  • WHIP: 1.06
  • GB/FB: 1.8
  • xERA: 3.2

Zack Littell (Tampa Bay Rays)

  • ERA: 3.27
  • SIERA: 3.23
  • xFIP: 3.07
  • K/9: 9.55
  • BB/9: 1.36
  • WHIP: 1.36
  • GB/FB: 0.89
  • xERA: 3.08

Pitching Analysis

The matchup between Severino and Littell shows contrasting styles. Severino boasts a lower ERA and WHIP, indicating better overall control and effectiveness. However, Littell’s superior strikeout rate (K/9) and lower walk rate (BB/9) suggest he can be more dominant in specific innings.

Team Performance Analysis

Bullpen and Defensive Insights

  • New York Mets Bullpen Rank: 1st
  • Tampa Bay Rays Bullpen Rank: 26th

The stark contrast in bullpen rankings is significant, with the Mets leading the league, indicating a stronger late-game defensive stance compared to the Rays’ struggling bullpen.

Offensive Matchup

  • Mets Overall Rank: 13th
  • Mets vs Right Handed Pitchers: 13th
  • Rays Overall Rank: 20th
  • Rays vs Right Handed Pitchers: 20th

The Mets have a slight edge in hitting, particularly against right-handers, which aligns with this matchup against Littell.

Mets vs Rays Prediction

Betting Model Insights

Model Predictions

  • New York Mets Win Probability: 55.42%
  • Tampa Bay Rays Win Probability: 44.58%
  • Model Projected Odds for Mets: -124 (US), 1.80 (decimal)
  • Model Projected Odds for Rays: +124 (US), 2.24 (decimal)

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: New York Mets (Moneyline)
  • Pitcher: Luis Severino
  • Odds: -105
  • Calculated Value: 0.85 (Kelly Criterion)
  • Confidence: Solid value

Conclusion: Mets vs Rays Prediction

This Mets vs Rays prediction should serve as a guide and not the sole factor in your betting decisions. Always ensure to shop for the best odds, and consider the dynamics of each team’s performance and statistical advantages. For those looking to refine their betting strategies, consider exploring detailed sports betting courses or using tools like our MLB Betting Model available on Google Sheets. Remember, successful betting combines informed insights with prudent risk management.

Final Note

Stay tuned to our “MLB Picks” page for more updates on the best bets and first-half picks throughout the MLB season. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or new to the sports betting world, always approach with analysis and caution. Good luck!

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