Mets vs Pirates Prediction

For the Mets vs Pirates Prediction on July 5, 2024, our MLB betting model gives the New York Mets a 50.53% probability of winning with Luis Severino pitching, making them a valuable pick at +111 odds. The Pittsburgh Pirates, with Paul Skenes, have a 49.47% probability. Bet smart with our insights!


As we dive into the highly anticipated matchup between the New York Mets and the Pittsburgh Pirates, all eyes will be on the starting pitchers—Luis Severino for the Mets and Paul Skenes for the Pirates. Our Mets vs Pirates Prediction aims to provide you with a detailed analysis of this game, highlighting key statistics, betting odds, and insights to help you make informed betting decisions. The game is set to take place at PNC Park on Friday, July 5, 2024. Let’s explore the specifics that make this game a must-watch and a potentially profitable opportunity for savvy bettors.

Game Information & Sportsbook Odds

Before diving into the detailed analysis, let’s review the game information and the current sportsbook odds for this matchup.

  • Date: Friday, July 5, 2024
  • Location: PNC Park
  • Away Team: New York Mets
  • Home Team: Pittsburgh Pirates

Sportsbook Odds

  • New York Mets: 2.11 (Decimal odds), +111 (US odds)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates: 1.83 (Decimal odds), -120 (US odds)

Please note that odds can change, and it’s always wise to check the best MLB odds across different sportsbooks before placing your bets.

Starting Pitchers Analysis

Luis Severino (New York Mets)

Luis Severino, a right-handed pitcher, has an ERA of 3.42. Here are his advanced stats:

  • SIERA: 4.36
  • xFIP: 4.19
  • K/9: 6.84
  • BB/9: 2.96
  • WHIP: 1.16
  • GB/FB: 1.49
  • xERA: 3.55

Severino’s stats show a reliable pitcher with a moderate strikeout rate and good control, reflected in his BB/9 and WHIP. His xERA suggests he has been slightly unlucky, indicating potential for improvement.

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Paul Skenes (Pittsburgh Pirates)

Paul Skenes, another right-handed pitcher, boasts an impressive ERA of 2.06. His advanced stats are:

  • SIERA: 2.42
  • xFIP: 2.19
  • K/9: 12.04
  • BB/9: 1.72
  • WHIP: 1.03
  • GB/FB: 1.49
  • xERA: 2.72

Skenes stands out with an exceptional strikeout rate (K/9) and low walk rate (BB/9), making him a dominant force on the mound. His SIERA and xFIP are among the best, highlighting his effectiveness and consistency.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

New York Mets Bullpen

The Mets’ bullpen is ranked 4th in the league, showcasing depth and reliability. This high ranking suggests that the Mets can effectively manage games even if their starters exit early, maintaining control and limiting runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Bullpen

In contrast, the Pirates’ bullpen ranks 26th. This low ranking indicates potential vulnerabilities, especially in close games or situations requiring the bullpen to hold a lead. Bettors should consider this disparity when making their Mets vs Pirates prediction.

Offensive Matchup Analysis

New York Mets Offense

The Mets’ offense is a powerhouse, ranked 1st overall. Here’s a breakdown:

  • Overall Rank: 1
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 2
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 4

The Mets’ offensive strength is a key factor, particularly their performance against both left and right-handed pitchers, making them a formidable challenge for any opponent.

Pittsburgh Pirates Offense

The Pirates’ offense struggles significantly, ranked 28th overall:

  • Overall Rank: 28
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 25
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 28

This low ranking underscores their offensive weaknesses, which could be exploited by Severino and the Mets’ pitching staff.

Mets vs Pirates Prediction

Betting Model Analysis

Probability and Odds

Our MLB Betting Model provides the following probabilities and projected odds for the Mets vs Pirates Prediction:

  • New York Mets (Luis Severino): 50.53% probability, -102 US odds, 1.98 Decimal odds
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (Paul Skenes): 49.47% probability, 102 US odds, 2.02 Decimal odds

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our model’s analysis, the recommended MLB pick for this game is:

  • Moneyline Value: New York Mets with Luis Severino at +111 US odds.

Our model indicates solid value in betting on the Mets, given Severino’s capabilities and the overall strengths of the team.

Conclusion: Mets vs Pirates Prediction

In summary, our Mets vs Pirates Prediction highlights a close and intriguing matchup between two talented pitchers. The New York Mets, with Luis Severino on the mound and a top-ranked offense, present solid value for bettors, especially when considering the Pirates’ weaker bullpen and offensive struggles. Always remember to shop for the best MLB betting odds and leverage bonuses and promotions during the baseball betting season. For those looking to bet like a pro, consider exploring our sports betting courses and using advanced models to enhance your betting strategies.

Using this Mets vs Pirates Prediction as your guide, make informed bets and enjoy the excitement of this compelling MLB matchup.

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