Mets vs Marlins Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the New York Mets a 57.40% probability of winning against the Miami Marlins on May 17, 2024. With Christian Scott on the mound, the Mets offer solid value at -118 odds. Bet smart and check our model for the best MLB picks!


As we gear up for an exciting MLB matchup on Friday, May 17, 2024, between the New York Mets and the Miami Marlins, we bring you our comprehensive Mets vs Marlins prediction. This game will feature Christian Scott on the mound for the Mets, facing off against Jesus Luzardo of the Marlins. Let’s dive into the game details, sportsbook odds, and an in-depth analysis to help you make informed betting decisions.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Away Team: New York Mets
Home Team: Miami Marlins
Venue: loanDepot park
Date: Friday, May 17, 2024

TeamDecimal OddsUS Odds
New York Mets1.85-118
Miami Marlins2.09109

Note: Odds can change. Always check for the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks.

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Starting Pitchers Analysis

Christian Scott (New York Mets)

Christian Scott, a right-handed pitcher for the Mets, has been showing remarkable consistency this season with an ERA of 2.84. His advanced stats also paint a promising picture:

  • SIERA: 3.15
  • xFIP: 3.27
  • K/9: 9.95
  • BB/9: 2.13
  • WHIP: 1.11
  • GB/FB: 0.73
  • xERA: 3.11

Scott’s ability to limit walks and maintain a low WHIP has been crucial for the Mets. His groundball to flyball ratio and expected ERA further emphasize his efficiency on the mound.

Jesus Luzardo (Miami Marlins)

Jesus Luzardo, the left-handed pitcher for the Marlins, has had a challenging season with an ERA of 5.97. Here’s a breakdown of his advanced stats:

  • SIERA: 3.84
  • xFIP: 3.82
  • K/9: 9.95
  • BB/9: 3.98
  • WHIP: 1.33
  • GB/FB: 0.81
  • xERA: 4.45

While Luzardo matches Scott in strikeout capability, his higher walk rate and WHIP indicate control issues. The disparity between his ERA and xERA suggests that he has been somewhat unlucky, but his overall performance remains a concern.

Bullpen Matchup

The bullpen ranking gives us a glimpse into each team’s depth beyond their starting pitchers:

  • New York Mets Bullpen Rank: 7
  • Miami Marlins Bullpen Rank: 24

The Mets have a significantly stronger bullpen, which could play a decisive role, especially in close games.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

Overall Rankings

  • New York Mets Overall Rank: 18
  • Miami Marlins Overall Rank: 29

Rank vs. Left-Handed Pitchers

  • New York Mets Rank vs LHP: 21
  • Miami Marlins Rank vs LHP: 29

Rank vs. Right-Handed Pitchers

  • New York Mets Rank vs RHP: 13
  • Miami Marlins Rank vs RHP: 25

The Mets have a clear advantage in offensive metrics, particularly against right-handed pitchers, where they rank 13th compared to the Marlins’ 25th.

Mets vs Marlins Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability for Mets vs Marlins Prediction

Using our MLB betting model, we project the following probabilities and odds for this matchup:

  • New York Mets (Christian Scott): 57.40% probability, -135 US odds, 1.74 decimal odds
  • Miami Marlins (Jesus Luzardo): 42.60% probability, 135 US odds, 2.35 decimal odds

Recommended MLB Pick Based on Our Betting Model

Our MLB betting model indicates a strong value on the moneyline for the New York Mets:

  • Recommended MLB Pick: New York Mets
  • Pitcher: Christian Scott
  • Odds: -118
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.73
  • Confidence: Solid value

For further insights and final best MLB bets, be sure to check our “MLB Picks” page or get access to our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets, where you can learn to calculate odds and make your own projections.

Conclusion for Mets vs Marlins Prediction

Use this Mets vs Marlins prediction to guide your betting decisions, but always shop around for the best MLB baseball betting odds and take advantage of promotions during the season. For those looking to bet like a pro, consider our sports betting courses to enhance your analytical skills and betting strategies.

Remember: Always bet responsibly and never blindly follow anyone’s sports picks. If you want to learn how to bet analytically with sports betting models, our resources are here to help you become more proficient.

Happy betting!

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