Mets vs Guardians Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Cleveland Guardians a 59.52% chance to win against the New York Mets on May 20, 2024. With Ben Lively on the mound, the Guardians are favored at -132 odds. Bet on Cleveland for solid value in this matchup.


Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Mets vs Guardians Prediction: The highly anticipated matchup between the New York Mets and Cleveland Guardians is set for Monday, May 20, 2024, at Progressive Field. The current sportsbook odds favor the Cleveland Guardians with decimal odds of 1.76 (-132 US odds), while the New York Mets stand at 2.03 (103 US odds). However, it’s essential to note that odds can change, so always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks.

Starting Pitchers Breakdown

New York Mets: Tylor Megill

  • Hand: Right Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 2.25

Tylor Megill has been impressive this season with an ERA of 2.25. Despite his solid surface-level stats, his advanced metrics reveal some areas of concern. Megill’s SIERA stands at 5.41, and his xFIP is 5.89, indicating that he might be due for some regression. His K/9 rate is a strong 9, but his BB/9 is quite high at 6.75, resulting in a WHIP of 1.5. Additionally, his groundball to flyball ratio (GB/FB) is 0.4, and his xERA is 4.36, suggesting that his current ERA might not be sustainable.

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Cleveland Guardians: Ben Lively

  • Hand: Right Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 3.06

Ben Lively has a solid ERA of 3.06, and his advanced metrics support his performance. Lively’s SIERA is 4.32 and his xFIP is 4.46, both significantly better than Megill’s. He maintains a K/9 rate of 8.63 and a much lower BB/9 rate of 3.34, leading to a WHIP of 1.27. His GB/FB ratio is 0.47, and his xERA is 4.21, indicating that his current ERA is more reflective of his actual performance.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

New York Mets

  • Bullpen Rank: 9

The Mets bullpen is ranked 9th, showcasing their ability to support their starters effectively. However, they might face challenges if the starter, Tylor Megill, exits the game early due to his underlying metrics.

Cleveland Guardians

  • Bullpen Rank: 1

The Guardians boast the top-ranked bullpen in MLB. This elite bullpen can significantly impact the game’s outcome, especially if Ben Lively can hand over the game with a lead.

Offensive Matchup Analysis

New York Mets

  • Overall Rank: 19
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 21
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 15

The Mets’ offense ranks 19th overall and performs better against right-handed pitchers, standing at 15th. This could work in their favor as they face Ben Lively, a right-handed pitcher.

Cleveland Guardians

  • Overall Rank: 20
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 8
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 25

The Guardians’ offense ranks 20th overall, but they struggle significantly against right-handed pitchers, ranking 25th. This could be a crucial factor, given that Tylor Megill is a right-handed pitcher.

Mets vs Guardians Prediction

Betting Model Prediction for Mets vs Guardians

Probability and Projected Odds

  • New York Mets (Tylor Megill): 40.48%
  • MLB Model Projected US odds: 147
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal odds: 2.47
  • Cleveland Guardians (Ben Lively): 59.52%
  • MLB Model Projected US odds: -147
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal odds: 1.68

According to our MLB betting model, the Cleveland Guardians have a 59.52% probability of winning this matchup. This translates to a solid betting value on the Guardians given the current odds of -132.

Recommended MLB Pick Based on Betting Model Analysis

  • Side: Cleveland Guardians
  • Pitcher: Ben Lively
  • Odds: -132
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.63
  • Confidence: Solid value

Based on our analysis, the recommended MLB pick for this game is the Cleveland Guardians with Ben Lively at -132 odds. The model’s confidence level in this pick is solid, making it a valuable bet.

Conclusion for Mets vs Guardians Prediction

Use this Mets vs Guardians prediction to inform your betting strategy. Always shop for the best MLB baseball betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the MLB betting season. If you want to learn how to bet like a pro, analytically with sports betting models, check out our sports betting courses.

For the final best MLB bets and first half picks, please check the “MLB Picks” page or get our MLB betting model in Google Sheets to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections.

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