Mets vs Giants Prediction

Explore our MLB betting model for the Mets vs Giants prediction on April 22, 2024. Our model favors the Giants with a 53.88% probability of winning, compared to the Mets at 46.12%. Assess the projected odds and expert insights to place informed bets on this anticipated matchup.


In this Mets vs Giants prediction for the upcoming game on Monday, April 22, 2024, at Oracle Park, we dive deep into the matchup details, pitching comparisons, and other crucial factors to deliver a comprehensive betting guide. With the New York Mets facing off against the San Francisco Giants, bettors and fans alike are keen on understanding how the game might unfold. Given the odds and team performances, this analysis seeks to equip you with insights to make well-informed decisions.

Game Overview

Teams and Odds

  • Away Team: New York Mets | Decimal Odds: 2.08 | US Odds: +108
  • Home Team: San Francisco Giants | Decimal Odds: 1.80 | US Odds: -125


  • Ballpark: Oracle Park

Note: It’s essential to verify these odds as they can fluctuate. Always compare MLB odds across various sportsbooks.

Pitching Analysis

Starting Pitchers Matchup

  • Jose Quintana (New York Mets) – Left Handed Pitcher | ERA: 3.46
  • Keaton Winn (San Francisco Giants) – Right Handed Pitcher | ERA: 5.13

Advanced Pitching Stats

  • Jose Quintana: SIERA: 4.78 | xFIP: 4.55 | K/9: 7.1 | BB/9: 3.27 | WHIP: 1.35 | GB/FB Ratio: 1.18
  • Keaton Winn: SIERA: 3.83 | xFIP: 3.86 | K/9: 7.8 | BB/9: 2.28 | WHIP: 1.08 | GB/FB Ratio: 1.87

The detailed pitching stats indicate that Keaton Winn, despite a higher ERA, has better underlying metrics compared to Jose Quintana, suggesting a potential advantage in controlling the game’s pace and limiting runs.

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Team Matchup Analysis

Bullpen Strength

  • New York Mets: Rank 1
  • San Francisco Giants: Rank 7

Offensive Matchup

  • Overall Rank
  • New York Mets: 9
  • San Francisco Giants: 16
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers
  • New York Mets: 7
  • San Francisco Giants: 19
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers
  • New York Mets: 8
  • San Francisco Giants: 15

The Mets boast a stronger bullpen and more balanced offense, particularly against left-handed pitching, which could play a crucial role in the outcome of the game.

Mets vs Giants Prediction

MLB Betting Model Analysis

Model Predictions

  • New York Mets (Jose Quintana): Probability 46.12% | Projected US Odds: +117 | Projected Decimal Odds: 2.17
  • San Francisco Giants (Keaton Winn): Probability 53.88% | Projected US Odds: -117 | Projected Decimal Odds: 1.86

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: San Francisco Giants
  • Pitcher: Keaton Winn
  • Odds: -125
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Value: -0.38 | Confidence: Bold opinion with no significant value edge

Conclusion: Mets vs Giants Prediction

When analyzing the Mets vs Giants prediction, it’s crucial to consider all variables, from pitching matchups to team performance dynamics. Although the Giants are slightly favored by our model, the Mets’ robust bullpen and better offensive stats against lefties should not be underestimated. Always ensure to shop for the best MLB odds and take advantage of sportsbook promotions. For those looking to deepen their understanding of sports betting strategies, consider exploring available sports betting courses to enhance your analytical skills.

Final Note: For further insights and up-to-date picks, be sure to check our “MLB Picks” page or access our MLB Betting Model on Google Sheets for comprehensive betting projections tailored to help you bet smarter.

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