Mets vs Dodgers Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Dodgers a 59.10% chance of winning against the Mets, with projected odds of -145. Despite this, the Mets show value at +168, making them a solid pick in this matchup. Always verify the latest odds and consider all factors before placing your bets.


In the upcoming MLB matchup set for April 19, 2024, the New York Mets take on the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium, promising an exciting showdown. This Mets vs Dodgers prediction dives deep into the game’s dynamics, including pitching matchups, bullpen strength, and offensive comparisons to provide a well-rounded betting perspective.

Game Details


  • Date: Friday, April 19, 2024
  • Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
  • Odds: Mets at +168, Dodgers at -200

Pitching Matchup

Sean Manaea – New York Mets

  • ERA: 4.7
  • SIERA: 4.2
  • xFIP: 4.37
  • K/9: 9.39
  • BB/9: 3.37
  • WHIP: 1.35
  • Groundball-to-Flyball Ratio: 0.96

Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Los Angeles Dodgers

  • ERA: 4.5
  • SIERA: 2.73
  • xFIP: 2.84
  • K/9: 11.81
  • BB/9: 2.25
  • WHIP: 1.06
  • Groundball-to-Flyball Ratio: 1.27
Mets vs Dodgers Prediction

Comparing the Pitchers

While Sean Manaea shows commendable strikeout capabilities, Yoshinobu Yamamoto presents superior control and efficiency, indicating a potential edge for the Dodgers in starting pitching.

Team Comparisons

Bullpen Matchup

  • New York Mets: Rank 1
  • Los Angeles Dodgers: Rank 13

The Mets boast the top bullpen in the league, which could be a critical factor in late-game scenarios, potentially offsetting any starting pitching disadvantages.

Offensive Matchup

  • Mets Overall Rank: 11
  • Vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: Rank 7
  • Vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: Rank 16
  • Dodgers Overall Rank: 5
  • Vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: Rank 11
  • Vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: Rank 4

The Dodgers’ lineup shows more consistent performance against both left and right-handed pitching, suggesting they might capitalize more effectively on their at-bats than the Mets.

MLB Betting Model Insights

Probabilities and Projected Odds

  • New York Mets (Sean Manaea): 40.90% probability; Projected odds +145
  • Los Angeles Dodgers (Yoshinobu Yamamoto): 59.10% probability; Projected odds -145

Recommended MLB Pick

Free MLB Pick:

  • Side: New York Mets
  • Pitcher: Sean Manaea
  • Odds: +168
  • Kelly Criterion Value: 0.57
  • Confidence: Solid value

Despite the Dodgers’ apparent advantages, our model finds significant value in backing the Mets, especially given their leading bullpen and competitive odds.

Conclusion: Mets vs Dodgers Prediction

In this Mets vs Dodgers prediction, both teams present compelling cases, but the value lies with the Mets. Utilize this analysis as a guide, but ensure to shop around for the best odds and consider any available promotions or bonuses. If you’re looking to refine your betting approach, consider exploring analytical sports betting models and courses to enhance your decision-making process.

Final Thoughts

Always remember, no sports pick is guaranteed. Use insights like these as tools to inform your bets and continue to seek out the most favorable conditions for your wagers. Good luck, and enjoy the game!

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