Mets vs Cardinals Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the New York Mets a 40.85% chance of victory and the St. Louis Cardinals a 59.15% probability. Sonny Gray’s impressive form tips the scales in favor of the Cardinals, while Jose Quintana’s inconsistency leaves the Mets with underdog value at +135 odds.


Introduction

In this highly anticipated matchup between the New York Mets and the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium, all eyes are on the starting pitchers, Jose Quintana and Sonny Gray. With both teams vying for a key win, our Mets vs Cardinals prediction is crucial in helping you navigate the best MLB betting odds. Despite fluctuating numbers, it’s essential to consider each pitcher’s advanced statistics, the bullpen matchup, and offensive rankings to identify value bets.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

  • Date: Wednesday, May 8, 2024
  • Venue: Busch Stadium
  • Away Team: New York Mets (2.35 | +135)
  • Home Team: St. Louis Cardinals (1.61 | -164)

Odds are subject to change, so ensure you find the best MLB odds across various sportsbooks.

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Starting Pitcher Breakdown

New York Mets – Jose Quintana

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 5.20
  • SIERA: 4.85
  • xFIP: 4.5
  • K/9: 6.19
  • BB/9: 3.96
  • WHIP: 1.54
  • GB/FB: 1.54
  • xERA: 5.92

Quintana’s advanced stats paint a picture of inconsistency, with high walk rates and a lack of strikeout dominance. His WHIP suggests frequent base runners, and the disparity between his SIERA and ERA points to underlying performance concerns.

St. Louis Cardinals – Sonny Gray

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 0.89
  • SIERA: 2.35
  • xFIP: 2.23
  • K/9: 11.27
  • BB/9: 1.48
  • WHIP: 0.86
  • GB/FB: 1.33
  • xERA: 2.33

Gray has been lights out, demonstrating excellent control and strikeout ability. His WHIP and low ERA indicate mastery over opposing hitters, making him a formidable force on the mound.

Bullpen and Offensive Matchup

Bullpen

  • New York Mets: 1st in Bullpen Rank
  • St. Louis Cardinals: 4th in Bullpen Rank

The Mets boast the league’s strongest bullpen, while the Cardinals’ bullpen is also highly ranked. Expect both teams to lean on their relief pitching if needed.

Offensive Matchup

New York Mets

  • Overall Rank: 15th
  • Vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 20th
  • Vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 14th

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Overall Rank: 24th
  • Vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 26th
  • Vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 17th

The Mets’ offense has a clear edge overall and against right-handed pitchers. The Cardinals have struggled offensively, particularly against left-handers like Quintana.

Mets vs Cardinals Prediction

Betting Model Probability

According to our baseball betting model:

  • New York Mets (Jose Quintana): 40.85% | +145 | 2.45 (decimal)
  • St. Louis Cardinals (Sonny Gray): 59.15% | -145 | 1.69 (decimal)

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Moneyline Value: New York Mets (+135)
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion: -0.30 (no value, just bold opinion)

While the model finds no significant value in betting on the Mets, this opinion may appeal to risk-takers who see potential in New York’s bullpen strength.

Conclusion: Mets vs Cardinals Prediction

Our Mets vs Cardinals prediction encourages you to consider both starting pitchers’ stats, offensive matchups, and each bullpen’s ranking. While the Cardinals are favored due to Gray’s dominance, explore various sportsbooks for the best MLB odds. Visit our “MLB Picks” page for final picks and discover sports betting models that could give you an analytical edge in making profitable predictions.

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