Marlins vs Phillies Prediction

For the Marlins vs Phillies prediction on June 27, 2024, our MLB betting model heavily favors the Phillies with a 77.73% win probability. With Zack Wheeler’s impressive stats and the Phillies’ strong bullpen, they present a solid betting value at -286 odds. Bet confidently on Philadelphia.


As the Miami Marlins take on the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday, June 27, 2024, fans and bettors alike are eager for an accurate Marlins vs Phillies prediction. With Trevor Rogers pitching for the Marlins and Zack Wheeler on the mound for the Phillies, this matchup at Citizens Bank Park promises to be an exciting contest. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the game, including advanced stats, team performance, and betting recommendations, ensuring you have the best insights for your Marlins vs Phillies prediction.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction Overview

  • Date: Thursday, June 27, 2024
  • Location: Citizens Bank Park
  • Away Team: Miami Marlins
  • Home Team: Philadelphia Phillies
  • Decimal Odds:
  • Miami Marlins: 3.20
  • Philadelphia Phillies: 1.35
  • US Odds:
  • Miami Marlins: +220
  • Philadelphia Phillies: -286

(Note: Odds can change. Always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks.)

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Starting Pitchers Analysis

Trevor Rogers – Miami Marlins

  • Hand: Left-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 4.9
  • SIERA: 4.62
  • xFIP: 4.41
  • K/9: 7.17
  • BB/9: 3.82
  • WHIP: 1.55
  • GB/FB: 1.54
  • xERA: 5.1

Trevor Rogers has had a challenging season, as reflected in his 4.9 ERA and high WHIP of 1.55. His SIERA (4.62) and xFIP (4.41) indicate that his underlying performance has been slightly better than his ERA suggests, but still not at an elite level. Rogers’ strikeout rate (K/9) is 7.17, which is decent but coupled with a relatively high walk rate (BB/9) of 3.82, it reveals control issues that could be problematic against a strong Phillies lineup.

Zack Wheeler – Philadelphia Phillies

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 2.73
  • SIERA: 3.42
  • xFIP: 3.42
  • K/9: 9.73
  • BB/9: 2.64
  • WHIP: 0.96
  • GB/FB: 1.09
  • xERA: 2.91

Zack Wheeler has been outstanding this season, boasting a 2.73 ERA and an impressive WHIP of 0.96. His SIERA and xFIP, both at 3.42, indicate that his performance is sustainable and supported by his advanced metrics. Wheeler’s high strikeout rate (9.73 K/9) and low walk rate (2.64 BB/9) demonstrate his dominance and control on the mound, making him a formidable opponent for the Marlins’ hitters.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

Miami Marlins Bullpen

  • Rank: 23

The Marlins’ bullpen has struggled this season, ranking 23rd in the league. This weakness could be exploited by the Phillies, especially if the game is close in the later innings. Bettors should be cautious about relying on the Marlins’ bullpen to hold a lead or keep the game within reach.

Philadelphia Phillies Bullpen

  • Rank: 2

In contrast, the Phillies’ bullpen ranks 2nd in the league, showcasing its reliability and effectiveness. A strong bullpen gives Philadelphia a significant advantage, especially if Wheeler can hand over the game with a lead. This bullpen performance is a critical factor in the Marlins vs Phillies prediction.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

Miami Marlins Offense

  • Overall Rank: 30
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 30
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 28

The Marlins have the worst offense in the league, ranking 30th overall and against left-handed pitchers, and 28th against right-handed pitchers. This lack of offensive firepower is a significant disadvantage, particularly against a pitcher of Wheeler’s caliber.

Philadelphia Phillies Offense

  • Overall Rank: 5
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 8
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 6

The Phillies boast one of the top offenses in the league, ranking 5th overall. Their ability to perform well against both left-handed and right-handed pitchers (8th and 6th, respectively) makes them a tough matchup for any pitching staff, including the struggling Marlins.

Marlins vs Phillies Prediction

Betting Model Probability for Marlins vs Phillies Prediction

Baseball Betting Model Probability

  • Miami Marlins (Trevor Rogers):
  • Probability: 22.26%
  • Projected US odds: +349
  • Projected Decimal odds: 4.49
  • Philadelphia Phillies (Zack Wheeler):
  • Probability: 77.73%
  • Projected US odds: -349
  • Projected Decimal odds: 1.29

Our MLB betting model gives the Phillies a 77.73% probability of winning, heavily favoring them over the Marlins. The model’s projected odds align closely with the sportsbook odds, reinforcing the prediction.

Recommended MLB PICK Based on Our MLB Betting Model Analysis

Moneyline Value Pick

  • Side: Philadelphia Phillies
  • Pitcher: Zack Wheeler
  • Odds: -286
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 1.41
  • Confidence: Good Value

Based on our MLB betting model, the recommended pick is the Philadelphia Phillies with Zack Wheeler on the mound. Despite the odds being heavily in favor of the Phillies, the adjusted Kelly Criterion indicates good value, suggesting a confident bet on Philadelphia.

(Note: For final best MLB bets and first-half picks, please check the “MLB Picks” page or get our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets to learn how to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections.)

Conclusion for Marlins vs Phillies Prediction

In conclusion, using the Marlins vs Phillies prediction for Thursday, June 27, 2024, bettors should consider the Phillies as the stronger side, given their superior pitching, bullpen, and offense. Zack Wheeler’s dominance and the Phillies’ high-powered offense provide a significant edge over the struggling Marlins. Always remember to shop for the best MLB betting odds and take advantage of promotions during the baseball betting season. For those looking to bet analytically, our sports betting courses can teach you how to use betting models effectively.

By incorporating advanced statistics and a thorough analysis of both teams, this Marlins vs Phillies prediction aims to provide comprehensive insights to help you make informed betting decisions.

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