Marlins vs Cubs Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Chicago Cubs a 65.47% chance of defeating the Miami Marlins, with projected odds at -190. Conversely, the Marlins have a 34.53% chance, reflected in odds of +190. Dive into detailed analytics before placing your bets on this Marlins vs Cubs matchup.


In this comprehensive breakdown of the upcoming Marlins vs Cubs Prediction for Saturday, April 20, 2024, we’re diving into all aspects that might influence your betting strategy. With the game set at the iconic Wrigley Field, the Miami Marlins will face off against the Chicago Cubs in what promises to be an intriguing contest. The Marlins are entering the game with decimal odds of 2.40 (US odds +140), while the Cubs are favored with odds of 1.55 (-182). Note that these odds can fluctuate, so it’s always wise to check for the best MLB odds across different sportsbooks.

Game Overview and Key Stats

Pitching Matchup Insight

Edward Cabrera of the Miami Marlins, a right-handed pitcher, comes into this matchup with an ERA of 4.27. Cabrera’s advanced stats show a SIERA of 4.47 and an xFIP of 4.08, with a high strikeout rate (K/9) of 10.67 but a concerning walk rate (BB/9) of 5.47. His WHIP stands at 1.44, complemented by a GB/FB ratio of 1.78, indicating a tendency to induce ground balls over fly balls.

On the other side, Javier Assad for the Chicago Cubs, also a righty, boasts a more impressive ERA of 2.82. Assad’s SIERA nearly mirrors Cabrera’s at 4.40, and his xFIP is 4.24, showing good underlying metrics. His K/9 rate is 7.68 with a better control demonstrated by a BB/9 of 2.94 and a lower WHIP of 1.17. His groundball to fly ball ratio stands at 1.22.

Bullpen and Offensive Comparison

The Marlins’ bullpen is ranked 25th in the league, while the Cubs’ bullpen holds a better position at 20th. In terms of offensive power, the Marlins struggle significantly, ranking 29th overall in MLB, and their performance doesn’t improve much against right-handed pitchers, where they are ranked 22nd. Contrastingly, the Cubs shine with an 11th overall offensive rank and are particularly lethal against left-handers, securing the top spot.

Detailed Analysis: Marlins vs Cubs Prediction

MLB Betting Model Predictions

The betting model forecasts a 65.47% probability of a Cubs victory, translating to projected odds of -190 (decimal 1.53). Conversely, it sees the Marlins at a 34.53% win probability, with projected odds of +190 (decimal 2.90). This suggests a stronger inclination towards a Cubs win in this matchup.

Marlins vs Cubs Prediction

Recommended MLB Pick

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Based on the model’s analysis and considering the odds adjustment through the Kelly Criterion, the value lies with picking the Cubs, albeit with a tiny edge. The calculated Kelly Criterion value of 0.27 underscores a conservative bet on the Chicago Cubs at the current odds of -182.


When making your Marlins vs Cubs Prediction, use these insights to inform your strategy but always blend it with your own research. Shopping for the best odds, considering promotions, and approaching sports betting analytically will enhance your experience and success rate. If you’re keen to delve deeper into sports betting strategies, consider exploring sports betting courses or accessing comprehensive models like my MLB Betting Model available on Google Sheets.

Remember, the key to successful sports betting lies in informed, strategic decisions backed by solid data and continual learning. Enjoy the game, and may your bets be as strategic as they are thrilling!

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