Mariners vs Twins Prediction

The Mariners vs Twins Prediction sees the Twins favored, with a 61.75% probability according to the MLB betting model. With Pablo Lopez on the mound, the Twins have strong confidence (-132 odds), giving them a notable edge over the Mariners. Check various sportsbooks for the best odds before placing your bets!

The upcoming Mariners vs Twins Prediction showdown between the Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins, scheduled for Thursday, May 9, 2024, is shaping up to be an intriguing contest, featuring a compelling pitching duel between Logan Gilbert and Pablo Lopez. With the Mariners looking for an edge on the road against the Twins at Target Field, this matchup promises exciting baseball action for bettors and fans alike.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

  • Date: Thursday, May 9, 2024
  • Ballpark: Target Field
  • Away Team: Seattle Mariners
  • Home Team: Minnesota Twins


  • Seattle Mariners: 2.05 (Decimal) / +105 (US odds)
  • Minnesota Twins: 1.76 (Decimal) / -132 (US odds)

Note: Odds may change. Always check various sportsbooks for the best MLB betting odds.

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Starting Pitchers Comparison

The starting pitchers, Logan Gilbert and Pablo Lopez, offer an exciting contrast in styles and stats.

Logan Gilbert (Seattle Mariners)

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 1.69
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 3.25
  • xFIP: 3.31
  • K/9: 9.38
  • BB/9: 2.44
  • WHIP: 0.79
  • GB/FB: 0.92
  • xERA: 3.12

Pablo Lopez (Minnesota Twins)

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 4.3
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 2.81
  • xFIP: 2.88
  • K/9: 10.75
  • BB/9: 1.91
  • WHIP: 1.04
  • GB/FB: 1.08
  • xERA: 2.73

Analysis of Pitching Matchup

Gilbert and Lopez present intriguing comparisons with their advanced stats. While Lopez has a higher ERA, his SIERA (2.81) and xFIP (2.88) suggest he’s pitching better than his traditional ERA indicates. With a higher strikeout rate (K/9 of 10.75) and better walk control (BB/9 of 1.91), he’s expected to excel in this matchup. Meanwhile, Gilbert’s consistency in controlling walks (BB/9 of 2.44) and generating ground balls (GB/FB of 0.92) gives him the ability to limit damage effectively.

Bullpen and Offensive Matchup

Bullpen Rankings

  • Seattle Mariners: 9th
  • Minnesota Twins: 6th

Offensive Rankings

  • Seattle Mariners: 18th overall
  • vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 14th
  • vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 19th
  • Minnesota Twins: 11th overall
  • vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 4th
  • vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 16th

Analysis of Bullpen and Offensive Matchups

The Twins hold a slight edge in bullpen depth, ranked 6th compared to the Mariners’ 9th. Offensively, the Twins excel against left-handed pitchers but have more modest success against right-handers, where they’re ranked 16th. The Mariners are less consistent at the plate, particularly versus right-handed pitchers like Lopez, which could be a significant factor in this game.

Mariners vs Twins Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probabilities for Mariners vs Twins Prediction

  • Seattle Mariners (Logan Gilbert): 38.25% (Projected odds: +161 / 2.61)
  • Minnesota Twins (Pablo Lopez): 61.75% (Projected odds: -161 / 1.62)

Recommended MLB PICK Based on Betting Model

  • Side: Minnesota Twins
  • Pitcher: Pablo Lopez
  • Odds: -132
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 1.14
  • Confidence: Good Value

Conclusion for Mariners vs Twins Prediction

The Mariners vs Twins Prediction suggests a clear value on the Twins with Pablo Lopez on the mound, given their higher likelihood of victory according to the betting model. However, use this prediction as a guide and don’t blindly follow anyone’s sports picks. Always shop around for the best MLB betting odds, and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the baseball season. For more comprehensive advice on betting models and strategies, consider checking out my sports betting courses or MLB Picks page to learn how to analyze games like a pro.

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