Mariners vs Twins Prediction

The Mariners vs Twins Prediction tips Minnesota, with a 63.01% win probability based on our MLB betting model. Bailey Ober’s stats give the Twins an edge over Emerson Hancock, offering good value at -141 odds. Explore the full breakdown and bolster your bets for Tuesday’s game!


In this highly anticipated matchup on Tuesday, May 7, 2024, at Target Field, we present our Mariners vs Twins Prediction featuring starting pitchers Emerson Hancock and Bailey Ober. With each team striving for victory, let’s delve into the advanced pitching stats, offensive matchups, and betting model insights to craft the best possible betting strategy.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

  • Seattle Mariners (Away Team): 2.25 (Decimal) | +125 (US odds)
  • Minnesota Twins (Home Team): 1.71 (Decimal) | -141 (US odds)
  • Ballpark: Target Field

Note: Odds can fluctuate, so it’s essential to compare the best MLB odds across different sportsbooks.

Starting Pitcher Stats

Emerson Hancock (Seattle Mariners)

  • Handedness: Right
  • ERA: 4.75
  • SIERA: 4.48
  • xFIP: 4.57
  • K/9: 6.82
  • BB/9: 2.67
  • WHIP: 1.29
  • GB/FB: 0.87
  • xERA: 5.47
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Bailey Ober (Minnesota Twins)

  • Handedness: Right
  • ERA: 4.55
  • SIERA: 3.95
  • xFIP: 4.12
  • K/9: 7.96
  • BB/9: 1.99
  • WHIP: 1.04
  • GB/FB: 0.6
  • xERA: 3.6

Pitching Analysis

In comparing both pitchers, Bailey Ober appears to hold a statistical edge over Emerson Hancock. With a lower xERA and WHIP, and higher strikeout rate, Ober’s pitching looks promising for the Twins. Hancock, however, is adept at avoiding walks and could deliver a solid performance if his defense provides support.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

  • Seattle Mariners Bullpen Rank: 10
  • Minnesota Twins Bullpen Rank: 4

The Twins’ bullpen ranks higher, providing a significant advantage in securing the latter innings if the game remains close.

Offensive Matchup Analysis

  • Seattle Mariners Hitting Rank:
  • Overall: 18
  • Vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 15
  • Vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 17
  • Minnesota Twins Hitting Rank:
  • Overall: 9
  • Vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 5
  • Vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 14

The Twins have a stronger offensive lineup, particularly against left-handed pitching, but they also hold a slight advantage against right-handed pitchers like Hancock.

MLB Betting Model Probability for Mariners vs Twins Prediction

  • Seattle Mariners (Emerson Hancock):
  • Model Probability: 36.99%
  • Projected US Odds: +170
  • Projected Decimal Odds: 2.70
  • Minnesota Twins (Bailey Ober):
  • Model Probability: 63.01%
  • Projected US Odds: -170
  • Projected Decimal Odds: 1.59
Mariners vs Twins Prediction

Recommended MLB Pick Based on Our MLB Betting Model Analysis

  • Side: Minnesota Twins
  • Pitcher: Bailey Ober
  • Odds: -141
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 1.09
  • Confidence: Good value

Conclusion for Mariners vs Twins Prediction

This Mariners vs Twins Prediction leans heavily towards the Minnesota Twins due to Bailey Ober’s statistical advantage on the mound, their superior bullpen, and offensive lineup. However, always shop for the best MLB betting odds, and take advantage of bonuses and promotions this season. For the final best MLB bets and first-half picks, visit the “MLB Picks” page or learn how to calculate your own odds by exploring my MLB Betting Model.

Bet wisely, and may the odds be ever in your favor!

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