Mariners vs Nationals Prediction

The Mariners vs Nationals Prediction sees Seattle favored with a 56.57% win probability (odds: -130) while Washington has a 43.43% chance (odds: 130). Despite the Mariners’ edge, our betting model suggests value in picking the Nationals at +145, leveraging Trevor Williams’ strong performance this season.


Welcome to our expert analysis of the Mariners vs Nationals Prediction for the MLB matchup on Saturday, May 25, 2024. This game features a clash between two right-handed pitchers, Logan Gilbert for the Seattle Mariners and Trevor Williams for the Washington Nationals. As always, make sure to check the latest odds from various sportsbooks for the best value.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

TeamDecimal OddsUS Odds
Seattle Mariners1.57-175
Washington Nationals2.45145

Ballpark: Nationals Park

Note: Odds can change. Always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks.

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Starting Pitchers

Logan Gilbert (Seattle Mariners)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 3.20

Trevor Williams (Washington Nationals)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 2.35

Pitchers’ Advanced MLB Stats Comparison

Logan Gilbert

  • SIERA: 3.63
  • xFIP: 3.55
  • K/9: 8.63
  • BB/9: 2.64
  • WHIP: 1.01
  • GB/FB: 1.14
  • xERA: 3.45

Logan Gilbert shows strong advanced metrics with a solid strikeout rate (K/9) of 8.63 and a low walk rate (BB/9) of 2.64. His SIERA (3.63) and xFIP (3.55) indicate he’s performing slightly better than his traditional ERA suggests. Gilbert’s WHIP of 1.01 reflects good control and efficiency on the mound.

Trevor Williams

  • SIERA: 4.24
  • xFIP: 4.04
  • K/9: 6.85
  • BB/9: 2.74
  • WHIP: 1.09
  • GB/FB: 1.24
  • xERA: 3.33

Trevor Williams, with an ERA of 2.35, has a lower SIERA (4.24) and xFIP (4.04) indicating some regression might be due. His strikeout rate (K/9) of 6.85 is lower than Gilbert’s, but he maintains a comparable walk rate (BB/9) of 2.74. Williams’ WHIP of 1.09 is respectable, though slightly higher than Gilbert’s.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

  • Seattle Mariners Bullpen Rank: 20
  • Washington Nationals Bullpen Rank: 23

Both teams have relatively lower-ranked bullpens, suggesting potential late-game scoring opportunities.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

Seattle Mariners

  • Overall Rank: 17
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 13
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 20

The Mariners perform better against left-handed pitchers, which won’t be a factor in this matchup against the right-handed Trevor Williams. Their overall hitting rank is mid-tier, which might not pose a significant threat given Williams’ current form.

Washington Nationals

  • Overall Rank: 26
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 27
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 17

The Nationals struggle overall and more so against left-handed pitchers. However, they have a slightly better performance against right-handed pitchers, which may give them an edge in this matchup.

Mariners vs Nationals Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability for Mariners vs Nationals Prediction

  • Seattle Mariners (Logan Gilbert): 56.57% (MLB Model Projected US odds: -130, Decimal odds: 1.77)
  • Washington Nationals (Trevor Williams): 43.43% (MLB Model Projected US odds: 130, Decimal odds: 2.30)

Recommended MLB PICK Based on Our MLB Betting Model Analysis

Moneyline value lies and this is also a free recommended MLB PICK:

  • Side: Washington Nationals
  • Pitcher: Trevor Williams
  • Odds: 145
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.44
  • Confidence: Tiny value

Note: For final best MLB bets and first-half picks, please check our “MLB Picks” page or get our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets to learn how to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections.

Conclusion for Mariners vs Nationals Prediction

Using the Mariners vs Nationals Prediction as your guide, always shop for the best MLB betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the MLB season. Remember to bet analytically and consider sports betting models to improve your predictions. For more in-depth insights and to learn how to bet like a pro, check out our sports betting courses.

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