Welcome to Maple Leafs vs Capitals Prediction prediction. Hockey fans are in for a treat as the Toronto Maple Leafs go head-to-head with the Washington Capitals. In this article, we’ll provide a comprehensive analysis of this exciting matchup, including key statistics, sportsbook odds, and our expert prediction.

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Game Info

Before we delve into the odds and predictions, let’s review the teams’ recent records, combining last season and the current season:

  • Toronto Maple Leafs: 53 Wins, 23 Losses
  • Washington Capitals: 36 Wins, 39 Losses

Sportsbook Odds

Now, let’s examine the sportsbook odds for this clash:

  • Toronto Maple Leafs: 1.6 (American Odds: -167)
  • Washington Capitals: 2.51 (American Odds: +151)
  • Total Goals: 6.5

These odds suggest that the Maple Leafs are the favorites with a lower payout, while the Capitals are considered the underdogs with potentially higher returns.

Offensive Matchup

Scoring prowess is a significant factor in any hockey game. Here’s how the teams stack up offensively:

  • Toronto Maple Leafs offense: 3.37 goals per 60 minutes, 32.1 shots per 60 minutes
  • Washington Capitals offense: 2.96 goals per 60 minutes, 30.42 shots per 60 minutes

The Maple Leafs hold the advantage in both goals and shots per game, showcasing their offensive firepower.

Defensive Matchup

A strong defense can be a game-changer. Here are the defensive stats for both teams:

  • Toronto Maple Leafs defense: 2.72 goals against per 60 minutes, 29.17 shots against per 60 minutes
  • Washington Capitals defense: 3.17 goals against per 60 minutes, 30.8 shots against per 60 minutes

The Maple Leafs have a more robust defense, conceding fewer goals and shots on average.

Advanced NHL Metrics

Let’s delve deeper into advanced metrics like Corsi For Percentage (CF%), Fenwick For Percentage (FF%), Goal Differential, and Shots Difference to gain more insights:

  • Toronto Maple Leafs: CF% 51.09, FF% 52, Goal Diff 0.65, Shots Difference 2.93
  • Washington Capitals: CF% 49.63, FF% 49.53, Goal Diff -0.21, Shots Difference -0.38

The Maple Leafs appear to have the edge in possession metrics and goal differential, indicating a more balanced overall performance.

Starting Goalies

Goaltenders play a crucial role in hockey, so let’s take a look at the expected starting goalies:

  • Toronto Maple Leafs: Joseph Woll (#N/A – Data unavailable)
  • Washington Capitals: Darcy Kuemper (SV% 0.907, Expected Goals Against 3.04)

Kuemper has shown solid performance, which could be a significant factor in the outcome of this game.

NHL Betting Model Prediction

Maple Leafs vs Capitals Prediction

According to our NHL Betting Model, the predicted outcomes are as follows:

  • Toronto Maple Leafs Win Probability: 53.06%
  • Projected Decimal Odds for Maple Leafs: 1.88 (American Odds: -113)
  • Washington Capitals Win Probability: 46.94%
  • Projected Decimal Odds for Capitals: 2.13 (American Odds: +113)
  • Projected Total Goals: 6.55

Recommended NHL Pick

The Maple Leafs have a more robust defense, conceding fewer goals and shots on average. Furthermore, they appear to have the edge in possession metrics and goal differential, indicating a more balanced overall performance. In terms of goaltending, Kuemper has shown solid performance, which could be a significant factor in the outcome of this game. While our model doesn’t qualify for a recommended pick with a calculated value of 1.18, it’s worth noting that there is some value with the Washington Capitals. For a safer bet, consider taking a +0.5 or +1.5 point spread for the Capitals.

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