Welcome to Washington Capitals vs Ottawa Senators prediction. Hockey fans are in for a treat as the Toronto Maple Leafs go head-to-head with the Washington Capitals. In this article, we’ll provide a comprehensive analysis of this exciting matchup, including key statistics, sportsbook odds, and our expert prediction.
Before we delve into the odds and predictions, let’s review the teams’ recent records, combining last season and the current season:
- Toronto Maple Leafs: 53 Wins, 23 Losses
- Washington Capitals: 36 Wins, 39 Losses
Now, let’s examine the sportsbook odds for this clash:
- Toronto Maple Leafs: 1.6 (American Odds: -167)
- Washington Capitals: 2.51 (American Odds: +151)
- Total Goals: 6.5
These odds suggest that the Maple Leafs are the favorites with a lower payout, while the Capitals are considered the underdogs with potentially higher returns.
Scoring prowess is a significant factor in any hockey game. Here’s how the teams stack up offensively:
- Toronto Maple Leafs offense: 3.37 goals per 60 minutes, 32.1 shots per 60 minutes
- Washington Capitals offense: 2.96 goals per 60 minutes, 30.42 shots per 60 minutes
The Maple Leafs hold the advantage in both goals and shots per game, showcasing their offensive firepower.
A strong defense can be a game-changer. Here are the defensive stats for both teams:
- Toronto Maple Leafs defense: 2.72 goals against per 60 minutes, 29.17 shots against per 60 minutes
- Washington Capitals defense: 3.17 goals against per 60 minutes, 30.8 shots against per 60 minutes
The Maple Leafs have a more robust defense, conceding fewer goals and shots on average.
Advanced NHL Metrics
Let’s delve deeper into advanced metrics like Corsi For Percentage (CF%), Fenwick For Percentage (FF%), Goal Differential, and Shots Difference to gain more insights:
- Toronto Maple Leafs: CF% 51.09, FF% 52, Goal Diff 0.65, Shots Difference 2.93
- Washington Capitals: CF% 49.63, FF% 49.53, Goal Diff -0.21, Shots Difference -0.38
The Maple Leafs appear to have the edge in possession metrics and goal differential, indicating a more balanced overall performance.
Goaltenders play a crucial role in hockey, so let’s take a look at the expected starting goalies:
- Toronto Maple Leafs: Joseph Woll (#N/A – Data unavailable)
- Washington Capitals: Darcy Kuemper (SV% 0.907, Expected Goals Against 3.04)
Kuemper has shown solid performance, which could be a significant factor in the outcome of this game.
NHL Betting Model Prediction
According to our NHL Betting Model, the predicted outcomes are as follows:
- Toronto Maple Leafs Win Probability: 53.06%
- Projected Decimal Odds for Maple Leafs: 1.88 (American Odds: -113)
- Washington Capitals Win Probability: 46.94%
- Projected Decimal Odds for Capitals: 2.13 (American Odds: +113)
- Projected Total Goals: 6.55
Recommended NHL Pick
The Maple Leafs have a more robust defense, conceding fewer goals and shots on average. Furthermore, they appear to have the edge in possession metrics and goal differential, indicating a more balanced overall performance. In terms of goaltending, Kuemper has shown solid performance, which could be a significant factor in the outcome of this game. While our model doesn’t qualify for a recommended pick with a calculated value of 1.18, it’s worth noting that there is some value with the Washington Capitals. For a safer bet, consider taking a +0.5 or +1.5 point spread for the Capitals.
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