Updated: February, 2024
That’s why I love sports betting models. They help me make better decisions about my bets, and they help me make those decisions faster than ever before. Want to craft a betting model but don’t know where to begin?
As a sports bettor, you want to make money. You want to win.
But if you’re not using the right tools, if you’re not analyzing data, if you’re not looking at the right information, it’s going to be hard for you to win consistently.
If you’re interested in learning more about how these models work and how they can help you win your bets, then keep reading!
Predictive models, algorithms, and machine learning have become established tools in the sports betting world. Bookmakers use them to set the odds and successful sports gamblers us sports prediction models to exploit “inefficiencies” in the sports betting markets.
Table of contents
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Table of contents
Profitable betting opportunities are harder to find, but more and more people will bet when legalized sports betting will fully step in. New betting strategies and successful sports betting tools are replacing traditional watching games and will save you a lot of time. It’s almost not possible to take all relevant data and all the information from newspapers like New York Post Sports.
Predictive analytics and machine learning in the betting world is growing super fast and this has a huge impact on the market itself. Because of that, applying a profitable sports betting model with the combination of hard work is one of the most essential steps for every successful sports bettor. Such predictive analytics help sports gamblers excluding their emotions and making better betting decisions, that are based on numbers, facts, and algorithms.
For most people building a successful sports betting model is a very difficult task. It takes a lot of time, research, knowledge, testing, and even sleepless nights. But once you establish a successful betting model, it can give you the edge and show you opportunities that the general betting public would never consider.
If you have no idea how to start with predictive analytics, check my free training for betting purposes and download free sports betting model – click here.
What is a sports betting model?
The sports betting model is a method, that can estimate probabilities and the odds of possible outcomes in a certain game before you bet. It gives you a chance to project the probabilities of outcomes more accurately than a bookmaker/betting market, which is a crucial part of success in betting. This way of betting is based on betting algorithms and helps you to find the value bets that most other bettors wouldn’t find.
Do sports betting models work?
Yes! A good and well-defined probabilistic sports betting model does work because it will find profitable wagering opportunities, which would not otherwise be possible.
It is very important to understand that sports betting is a relative competition against other bettors (not only against bookmakers), where most people who bet on sports, don’t use any probabilistic betting method. A very small percentage of sports bettors put enough effort to build a sports betting model. because of that, they have a huge advantage against those who don’t use any numbers and just rely on guessing.
Many sports bettors make two big mistakes:
- They emotionally decide which sports and teams they will bet on
- They make betting decisions based on intuition and gut feelings (not based on numbers or +EV).
The intuition can not be measured, and without analyzing the data we don’t have a rational system for estimating betting odds. Without analytics, sports bettors make bets based on bold guessing and can not estimate what price they should pay in the betting market. Betting on a bad value on the betting market leads always to a loss.
This is why sports wagering models and algorithms are crucial because they solve these problems.
Practical use of models for betting
The main goal of betting models is to exploit profitable betting opportunities – value bets.
The odds are the prices, that sports bettors pay on the betting market, and successful betting is all about paying a “good price”, which means betting on the odds, where the estimated (true) odds are higher than bookmakers odds.
Needless to say, these value bets can not be exploited just by guessing, watching games, or reading sports news. Therefore these models are so beneficial.
Not only that predictive models are crucial, but they also save us a lot of time. It is impossible to analyze every single game from all different angles by watching TV, reading the news, and looking at every single statistic. Sports models can solve these problems usually in minutes or seconds.
Example of practical use of betting model:
We have a game between Giants and Dodgers and the bookmakers offer the odds:
Giants to win the game: 1.91 (US odds = -110)
Dodgers to win the game:1.91 (US odds = -110)
The bookmaker’s odds of 1.91 (-110) vs 1.91 (-110) show us, that they are giving both teams 50% of the chance.
The aim of a predictive sports model is now an estimation of the winning probabilities for both teams and then comparing with bookmakers’ odds above. In other words, bookmakers are offering the price, and the betting model will help us to exploit good or bad price
If our betting model predicts…
- Giants win probability = 60% – good value bet. The fair odds would be 1/0.60 = 1.67. That means, that if we risk $100, we would expect that someone (a bookmaker) should pay us at least $67 of profit. But because of the odds of 1.91, they are paying more ($91). So we get more than we would expect – this is a good value. If my betting model has the ability to predict “true probabilities” for this event, where one team should have a 60% chance of winning instead of 50%, then this can be a +EV bet on the odds of 1.91 (-110). In a simple explanation, on 100 bets and the betting record of 60 wins and 40 losses, the profit would be +14.6 units.
- Giants win probability = 40% – bad value bet. The fair odds would be 1/0.40 = 2.50. That means, that if we risk $100, we would expect that someone (a bookmaker) should pay us at least $150 of profit. But because of the odds of 1.91, they are paying less (only $91). So we get less than we would expect – this is a good value. If my betting model has the ability to predict “true probabilities” for this event, where one team should have a 60% chance of winning instead of 50%, then this can be a +EV bet on the odds of 1.91 (-110). In a simple explanation, on 100 bets and the betting record of 60 wins and 40 losses, the profit would be +14.6 units.
How to create a sports betting algorithm?
Creating an algorithm or any sports handicapping model that is based on algorithms and probabilistic methods is usually a hard task for most sports bettors. But with the right steps and the right focus, it can be done even with the simplest tools like excel or Google Sheets.
- Research the leagues or sports that you want to analyze. Remember that you are not choosing a sport to watch, but the market to invest.
- Specify what problem you want to solve
- Choose the tool or programming language based on your knowledge, where you will build a model. The simplest tool for an average bettor, where we still make amazing things are excel and google spreadsheets. Or you go with advanced like python.
- Accumulate significant data and analyze it
- Choose a statistical method
- Create a sports betting model in your tool or program (betting software)
- Test the betting model and track results
These steps are a good start to build a betting model, but creating a profitable model will take time and effort. A well-defined and valid betting model needs to be maintained and improved from time to time.
What skills do you need to build a betting model?
Building an accurate sports betting model combines knowledge of mathematics, statistics, probability, data modeling, and programming. This means that sports bettors who decide to build their own betting model need to have some level of skills mentioned above in order to build a useful model.
What is the simplest way to create a sports betting model?
We found that the simplest programming tool for predictive sports betting models, where you still get satisfying results, is Google Sheets. It is free, it is online, so you can use it anywhere and it doesn’t need complex coding skills. The odds can be calculated in the tables, similar to excel.
It’s not a secret, that most bettors bet because they love sport, not because of their love for numbers. This is one of the huge reasons, why so many people lose in sports betting. Value bets are always hidden in the numbers and because of that investing time, effort, and energy in building sports betting models pays off in the long run.
Start with the free betting course and learn how to build simple Sports Betting Models in Google Sheets.
Intro to My Sports Betting Models in Google Sheets
Below you’ll learn more about my private betting models created in Google Spreadsheets that I use for betting on sports.
Which programs can help you build a predictive betting model?
To build a profitable sports betting model we need a spreadsheet program or programming language, that can organize data and solve mathematical problems. Without a tool or software, organizing data, analytical betting, and calculating the odds wouldn’t be possible. Some of the most popular betting tools to build models are excel, Google Sheets, Python, or R.
I have created several sports betting models in Google Spreadsheets, that have the ability to project my own betting odds. This way my odds can be compared with the bookmakers’ numbers (my projected odds/lines vs bookmakers’ lines).
Why Google Spreadsheets is so useful for building betting models?
Google spreadsheets are the simplest tool to build sports betting models for every sports bettor. They are free, user-friendly, and easy to learn programming languages. Most sports bettors understand the importance of analytical betting, but like the majority of the population in the world, they don’t enjoy mathematics, programming, or statistics. Most programming languages and algorithms are too complex for an average sports bettor.
This is why Google Spreadsheet is so useful because it is the simplest one, but can bring good betting results.
My whole work is devoted to helping an average sports bettor to win at sports betting by using the numbers and building useful and profitable betting models.
It all started with the MLB betting model, which is my main market to bet. But later I also created different betting models to show that even an average bettor can understand the numbers and use simple predictive models in google sheets or excel.
Why betting model is so important?
Sports betting has changed over the years. The sports betting market is sharper, bookmakers are sharper and the numbers are more and more important. And the real difference between sports betting, which is a financial market and pure sports are numbers. Without numbers, there is no sports betting. This is where betting models step in…
The fundamental question: What is the key to winning at sports betting?
The key to winning in sports betting is betting on the value (+EV bets). So if the bookmaker’s odds are 1.91 (-110) vs 1.91 (-110) on a particular event, that means that they give both teams 50% of the chance.
The goal of every sports betting model is to calculate (independently) probabilities of these outcomes and then compare them with bookmakers’ odds.
If in this case, my betting model estimates true probabilities for this event, that one team will have 60% of chance instead of 50%, then this can be a +EV bet on the odds of 1.91 (-110). On 100 bets, the betting record would be 60 wins and 40 losses, profit: +14.6 units.
Sports Betting Algorithm
The heart of every betting model is the algorithm. The combination of the right statistical methods, formulas, functions, and statistics (usually advanced statistics) is the key.
All other things, like visual aspects of the model, the colors, copy/pasting, or scrapping the data from the internet are just the details that can be improved anytime and can make our betting life easier. But without a good algorithm, everything else just falls into the water.
List of My Private Sports Betting Models
It all started with the MLB betting model in Excel and later moved to Google Spreadsheets, which is my main market to bet. But later I also created different betting models to show that even the average bettor can understand the numbers and use simple betting models in google sheets or excel.
List of my sports betting models created in Google Sheets:
- MLB baseball betting model (My #1 model)
- Basketball betting model (the best simple model)
- CSGO esports betting model (the future of betting)
- NBA betting model
- NHL betting model
- NFL simple betting model
- CBB simle betting model
- Soccer betting model
The fact is that in the long run, only value bets will lead to a profit. And the value is simply the difference between bookmakers’ odds and true (projected) odds. Best betting models can exploit these differences and inefficiencies.
MLB Betting Model: Mastering the Art of Baseball Wagering
MLB baseball holds a special place in my heart as the most successful sport I’ve ever bet on. With over 15 years of experience in baseball betting, my journey began with the development of a Google Sheets-based baseball betting model. As time progressed, I ventured into creating betting models for various other sports, either to challenge myself or to assist fellow bettors in embracing a more data-driven approach to wagering.
However, MLB baseball remains my primary focus. My baseball bankroll takes precedence over all other sports, with a proportionately larger investment involved.
Key insights about the baseball betting model spreadsheet:
- A seasoned bettor with over 15 years of MLB baseball betting expertise
- Capability to project your odds (US and Decimal) before bookmakers
- Automated data scraping from the internet (eliminating the need for manual copy/paste)
- Spend just 15-20 minutes daily to access projections for all games
- Daily verification of accurate lineups and annual updates of stats links and lineups before each season
- Player lineup-based model incorporating individual statistics for hitters and pitchers
- Value calculation for both full game and first 5 innings
- Projections for game totals and first 5 innings totals
- My comprehensive daily MLB baseball sports betting model spreadsheet
MLB Free Sports Picks Based on My Model:
Throughout the season, I share some of my daily MLB betting picks, projections, and in-depth analysis, all of which are backed by solid data-driven insights – never mere guesswork. You can explore some of my MLB picks here or check out the YouTube channel where I discuss my way of betting in greater detail.
By refining your betting strategies with the aid of my MLB betting model, you can elevate your wagering game and unlock the full potential of data-driven decision-making in the exciting world of baseball betting.
The Basketball Betting Model: A Simple Strategy for Conquering Smaller Markets
The primary objective of the basketball betting model and spreadsheet is to target international and smaller basketball markets. By projecting lines/totals based on freely available stats, we can identify discrepancies between our projections and the bookmakers’ totals.
Quadrupled the profits
This straightforward model has quadrupled profits across various leagues. While subsequent reinvestments saw profits regress slightly, the model’s simplicity and effectiveness helped bettors find valuable bets.
The basketball betting model performed exceptionally well in smaller leagues, with the lines moving rapidly. This highlights the importance of making your own bets instead of following sports picks in leagues where odds drop quickly.
Though the model wasn’t initially designed for US sports (NBA, WNBA, and CBB), it’s ideal for international and exotic leagues.
Handball, Basketball, Volleyball,… betting models, and spreadsheets
The basketball betting model has been successfully implemented in smaller sports like handball, volleyball, and rugby, as confirmed by our members in the membership area.
Key Features of basketball bet model in Google Spreadsheets:
- Project spreads and totals for any basketball league
- Successfully applied in other smaller sports and leagues like rugby, handball, and volleyball
- Focus on freely available stats, which can be used anywhere
- Team stats-based model
- Created and tested on nearly every league, with profitable overall results on over 2000+ bets; best leagues include SPA A, CHN, GER, ABA
- Takes 5-7 minutes per league, depending on the number of leagues you focus on
Why Betting on Smaller Basketball Leagues and Other Niche Sports is Ideal for Rookie Bettors?
Betting on smaller leagues presents two challenges: liquidity and rapid line movement. However, most sports bettors start with small bankrolls (less than $10,000 and units around $100 per bet), making this an excellent opportunity to build your bankroll before moving on to larger, sharper markets.
Unfortunately, many novice bettors view sports betting as a sport rather than an investment market, targeting big markets like the NFL because they love the game and believe they “know” the league. In reality, we are choosing a market and competing against other sports bettors, not just bookmakers.
Competing in a big market means going up against the sharpest minds in the industry. Attacking smaller markets is a better strategy for new and smaller bettors. Once you’ve conquered smaller markets, you can move on to larger ones.
The Simplest Predictive Sports Model
The basketball betting model built using Google Sheets is the simplest predictive model with profitable results. It’s an ideal starting point for anyone new to analytics for betting, unfamiliar with coding, or complex algorithms.
CSGO Betting Model: Harnessing Data to Dominate Esports Wagers
As a passionate sports bettor, I view sports betting as a market in which I seek out lucrative opportunities. It’s evident that esports betting will be one of the largest betting markets in the future – there’s no doubt about it.
When the COVID-19 pandemic struck in 2020, traditional leagues were shut down, which provided me with the perfect opportunity to delve deeper into esports betting. Among the three primary options – Dota, League of Legends, and CSGO (Counter-Strike: Global Offensive) – I chose to focus on CSGO.
Esports betting has enormous potential to become one of the largest betting markets, offering new and experienced bettors alike the chance to transition from sharp markets like the NFL and gain a more significant advantage.
In 2020, I dedicated myself to learning and refining the CSGO betting model. While I placed small bets and tracked their progress, I considered it a journey that allowed me to explore the exciting world of esports betting.
The CSGO betting model I’ve built in Google Sheets is designed for the future. It is based on players’ lineups, rankings, and statistics, with each team having five players in their lineup. The model predicts the winning probabilities for both teams, which are then converted into odds. Bets are qualified based on the adjusted Kelly criterion.
- Project your odds (US and Decimal) before bookmakers
- Utilize free CSGO statistics
- Lineup-based model
- Weekly updates (6 copy/paste actions) of stats, typically at the end of events, taking approximately 1 minute
- Prepared lineups, with a quick check on HLTV.org before analysis
- 15 minutes to project all lines for 10 CSGO games
By embracing the rapidly growing esports betting market, you can stay ahead of the curve and capitalize on the opportunities this exciting market has to offer. Additionally, it’s worth noting that the CS:GO model is included in the Masterclass, and those who enroll can download it for their use.
NBA Betting Model: Unlocking the Secrets of Pro Basketball Betting Success
Combination of 3 different NBA model variations
My NBA betting model is a comprehensive approach that combines three different model variations. It is designed to predict spreads and totals based on advanced player statistics and daily NBA lineups. My primary objective is to identify discrepancies between my calculated numbers and those of the bookmakers – a difference of 5 points for NBA spread betting and 10 points for NBA Over/Under betting.
Weighted stakes based on the discrepancy
Instead of using the adjusted Kelly criterion for spread/total sports, I focus on the discrepancy between my numbers and the bookmakers’ numbers to determine the weight of my stakes.
Over/Under NBA Betting (looking for 10 pts diff)
- qualified play = 0.5 units
- 5 pts spread diff = 1 unit
- 5.5 – 6 pts spread diff = 1.1 units
- 6.5 – 7 pts spread diff = 1.2 units
- 7.5 – 8pts spread diff = 1.3 units
- 8.5 – 9 pts spread diff = 1.4 units
- 9.5 – 10 pts spread diff or more = 1.5 units
- Ability to project your spreads and totals before bookmakers
- Utilization of freely available advanced stats
- Lineup-based model
- Calculation of NBA spreads and totals using three model variations to derive a final number
- Quick daily updates with 3 copy/paste actions (1 minute) followed by checking for injuries and player updates
- Daily projected spreads and totals completed within 5-10 minutes
By employing this comprehensive NBA betting model, I can quickly and efficiently predict spreads and totals, allowing me to make informed decisions and place well-calculated bets.
NHL Betting Model: Master the Ice with Lineup-Based Hockey Betting Strategies
Over the years, I’ve worked on developing a successful NHL betting model. As a sports bettor, it’s essential to understand that one doesn’t need to bet on every single sport, and it’s nearly impossible to be successful in every league as the market continually sharpens.
Advanced Statistics, Goalies, Score Effects, Possession
My NHL betting model is lineup-based, focusing on advanced statistics, goalies, score effects, and possession. Score effects are an essential factor, as teams tend to play more defensively when leading, which must be taken into account.
Lineup based model
Before each season, I prepare the lineups and check them daily for any changes, such as players being questionable or missing from the roster. The projected odds are contingent on these lineups and how the players perform in various situations, with particular emphasis on score effects.
Goalies play a significant role in the NHL, and getting accurate information about starting goalies can be challenging, as it is often released close to game time. I rely on multiple sources to determine the starting goalies and adjust the model’s probabilities and projected odds accordingly.
xGF and predicted win%
The model calculates expected NHL goals (MyxGF) by considering the opponents’ goalie and defense. These estimated winning percentages are then converted into odds, and the model qualifies bets based on the Kelly criterion.
Key features of my NHL betting model include:
- The ability to project your odds (US and Decimal) before bookmakers
- Usage of freely available advanced stats
- Application of the adjusted Kelly criterion to select qualified bets
- Lineup-based model
- Goalie-based model (choose the starting goalie before every game)
- Fully automated model, eliminating the need for any copy/pasting
- Pre-season preparation of lineups and accurate stats pulled from the internet (approximately 30-60 minutes of work once before the season)
- Projecting NHL lines typically takes around 15 minutes, with most of the time spent on checking lineups and starting goalies
By utilizing this comprehensive NHL betting model, I can efficiently predict odds and make well-informed decisions when placing bets.
NFL Betting Model: Tackling the Sharpest Market for Long-Term Gains
In 2018, I decided to create an NFL betting model to assist our members with a straightforward model they could incorporate into their analyses. Although I bet small amounts in 2018 and 2019, I haven’t placed real money bets on the NFL since then.
NFL is considered one of the sharpest markets out there
The NFL is considered one of the sharpest markets out there, with sports bettors facing the most skilled handicappers and lines. For an average sports bettor, the NFL is probably the worst sport to bet on. Gaining an edge in the NFL market means not only beating the bookmakers but also outperforming other sharp and professional NFL sports gamblers.
A masterpiece from Sportsbooks
Sportsbooks have masterfully manipulated the NFL market by attracting numerous players, giving false hope to NFL sports fans who mistakenly think they know the league simply because they watch the games. However, NFL betting is a market, not a sport, and that’s where Sportsbooks make their profits.
It is an interesting market…, especially for experienced NFL sports bettors
For experienced NFL sports bettors, the NFL betting market is intriguing due to its sharp and significant nature. Building a sports betting model for the NFL is highly challenging because of the limited number of games, statistics, and information available in one season. Even a positive expected value (EV) NFL bettor can win or lose due to pure luck.
Simple team statistics based NFL model in 2018 (+16.64 units)
In 2018, I developed an NFL betting model based on a simple basketball betting model. This model focused on advanced team statistics rather than individual player data. However, in 2019, I attempted to enhance the model by incorporating player statistics, intending to address injury issues and manually adjust NFL spreads when key players were absent. Unfortunately, the performance declined in 2019, so I reverted to the original team-based model in 2021.
- NFL 2018/2019: 35-17, +16.64
Player-based NFL betting model in 2019 (-9.28 units)
In 2019 I wanted to improve the NFL betting model with players’ statistics, which could improve the problem of injuries and manually adjust the NFL spreads when QB or other important player is missing.
- NFL 2019/2020:24-29, -9.28
2021 back to a simple NFL model in google sheets
Part of the statistics I used from football-reference and they locked advanced players stats, and because the idea of my work is to help average sports bettors to create betting models based on free available stats, I went back to a simple team-based betting model.
NFL betting picks
Many sports gamblers search for NFL picks and tips, but following these picks is not recommended, especially if you’re late to the game. Sharp NFL bettors typically secure value bets early and beat the closing line, leaving average NFL gamblers at a disadvantage.
Occasionally, I share my NFL Google spreadsheet betting model on my YouTube channel, offering free NFL picks. While the model can be helpful for NFL sports bettors, I believe there are other markets with better profit potential than the NFL.
Key Features of NFL model:
- Opportunity to project your NFL spreads and totals before bookmakers
- Utilizes freely available advanced stats
- Model concept is based on a simple basketball model combined with advanced statistics (passing, rushing vs. defense)
- Requires six copy/paste actions per week (data can also be pulled from the internet with minor development), taking around two minutes
- Easily project lines by selecting teams, and the model will output spreads and totals for Over/Under betting
- Projections for all NFL Week games can be completed in less than 10 minutes
NFL Betting Model crafted by ChatGPT (2023 Edition)
In 2023 ChatGPT create simplistic NFL betting model that projects the final score in a simple way. Leveraging the power of ChatGPT, I embarked on an exciting journey to weave artificial intelligence into my sports analysis. Inspired by the dynamic nature of the NFL, my vision was clear: to devise a simplistic yet valuable model that could accurately predict the scores of each game.
By harmoniously combining statistics from two renowned sources, Football-Reference and ESPN, I crafted a model that not only forecasts game outcomes but also pinpoints potentially +EV bets. This endeavor reflects my passion and commitment to provide fellow bettors with tools that embrace the future while offering tangible value today.
What Makes this model interesting?
- Simplicity Meets Sophistication: While many betting models can be complex and intimidating, this model, despite its advanced underpinnings, is designed for straightforward use. Whether you’re a novice or a seasoned bettor, you can navigate and leverage its predictions with ease.
- Dynamic Data Source Integration: The model incorporates statistics from prominent sports databases like Football-Reference and ESPN. By merging data from these trusted sources, it offers comprehensive insights for each game.
- Instant Predictions: No more tedious manual calculations. Just select the teams for the week, and the model instantaneously predicts scores. For instance, it can give you precise outputs like: Chiefs 34.6 vs. Dolphins 27.23.
- Versatility: It’s not just about the scores. The model also provides predicted spreads and totals, giving bettors a multifaceted view of upcoming games. Plus, it highlights potentially profitable bets based on user-defined criteria.
- Continuous Learning: Just as the NFL evolves, so does this model. Built with feedback loops, it assimilates new game data to refine its predictions continually.
CBB Betting Model: Conquer College Basketball with a Data-Driven Approach
In 2019, a member of our A Journey Betting Masterclass approached me, asking if I could help them build a simple betting model for College Basketball (NCAAB, CBB). So, I decided to develop a straightforward predictive model using Google spreadsheets and freely available stats from the internet. This model aimed to project spreads and totals (Under/Over betting) for College Basketball betting.
I used this model to analyze and make betting projections for over 1,000 bets. The concept behind this simple basketball betting model was to compare projected spreads with the bookmakers’ spreads. I searched for discrepancies ranging from 5 to 10 points.
The idea of a simple basketball betting model
The idea was based on a simple basketball model, where the model compares projected spreads with bookmakers’ spreads.
I was looking for
- 5 pts difference
- 6 pts difference
- 7 pts difference
- 8 pts difference
- 9 pts difference
- 10 pts difference
The results of my CBB model in Google Sheets were based on 1,008 analyzed games and various discrepancies:
Example CBB College Basketball Betting Model Spreadsheet:
Key Features of NCAAB betting model:
- Ability to calculate your spreads and totals before bookmakers
- Utilizes freely available advanced stats
- Only requires one copy/paste per day (takes about 10 seconds)
- Projections are simple: just input the teams, and the model will estimate the spreads and totals (Under/Over NCAAF betting)
With this easy-to-use College Basketball betting model, you can enhance your betting strategy and gain insights into potential discrepancies between your projections and bookmakers’ spreads.
Soccer Betting Model: Kickstart Your Profits with 3 Strategies
On this page, we will use the term “soccer” to avoid confusion with American football. Although soccer is one of the most popular sports globally, I have not been the biggest fan of soccer betting. However, this may change in the future.
To assist our students and members who bet on soccer, I developed a model using the “Bundesliga 2” as a sample. Based on this model, any other league can be created. I conducted a regression analysis using various stats, estimated expected goals (xGF), and then calculated winning percentages.
There are numerous variables, and I only placed a small number of bets with a minimal amount of money on soccer games.
Betting on international competitions is another popular market, particularly during major tournaments. This is because there is a significant amount of so-called dumb or public money involved. Soccer fans worldwide bet on these games, which have high limits and potentially attractive odds.
For EURO 2021, I used a rating-based betting model in Google spreadsheets, which proved to be very successful. I subsequently employed the same soccer betting system for various international soccer competitions.
Emotions drive soccer bettors
Personally, soccer is not my favorite sport to bet on, despite having played soccer in the past and still enjoying watching it when time permits. I believe many bettors make the same mistake as with NFL betting – betting on soccer due to emotions and love for the game.
When I started betting, I placed bets on soccer as well. However, I soon realized that sports and betting are separate entities. Sports are sports, while the market is the market. For me, baseball was a more suitable option, but we’ll see if this remains true in the future.
Key Features of the Soccer Betting Model:
- Project your odds and expected goals
- Utilize freely available soccer stats
- Calculate value based on Kelly’s criterium
- Complete projections for one league in approximately 10 minutes
This website was never intended to sell betting picks (I don’t sell any sports picks). In fact, relying on free (or paid) sports picks won’t lead to long-term success.
The purpose of this project is to empower average bettors to profit from sports betting over time. By providing them with tools and guidance, we aim to show them how to use numbers to their advantage, setting them apart from the majority of gamblers who rely on blind guesses. Additionally, we offer a framework for learning how to create their own profitable sports betting models.
I’ve observed that 95% of bettors don’t use number-based analysis and statistics in their betting strategies. This is mainly due to two reasons:
- They lack basic knowledge of math or statistics and don’t know where to begin.
- Betting models, tools, and algorithms appear too complex, and most bettors are unlikely to learn programming languages like Python.
Introducing Various Methods and Ideas
It would be unwise to bet on every sport I’ve mentioned. In reality, a successful bettor only needs one or two leagues or bet types where they can gain an edge and generate profits.
The goal is to demonstrate how bettors can employ various methods and ideas for their preferred sport or league. These betting model combinations can even be adapted to create entirely new betting models.
Practical Experience, Not Just Theory
All models have been tested in real time against Pinnacle odds. Throughout the season, I conducted daily projections and analyzed every game against the real-time odds of the sharpest bookmakers.
However, due to time constraints, I cannot share projected odds and all my bets for every sport and league. Nonetheless, an average sports bettor can learn to build a profitable sports betting model using Google Spreadsheets.
My motto is: “Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime.”