For the KHAOS WILLIAMS vs CARLSTON HARRIS UFC fight, our betting model favors Harris. The ELO model gives Harris a 53.88% win probability, while the logistic regression model places it at 58.33%. Given these predictions, Harris emerges as the recommended pick for this matchup.

As we approach the highly anticipated fight between Khaos Williams and Carlston Harris on Saturday, May 18, 2024, the betting community is abuzz with predictions and analyses. This KHAOS WILLIAMS vs CARLSTON HARRIS UFC prediction is brought to you by Eric, a member of the Underdog Chance Sports Betting Masterclass, who has developed a sophisticated UFC betting model. In this post, we will delve into a comprehensive analysis, compare fighter statistics, and provide a recommended pick based on Eric’s betting model.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Before diving into the analysis, let’s take a look at the current odds for the fight:

  • Khaos Williams: Decimal odds 1.80, US odds -125
  • Carlston Harris: Decimal odds 2.15, US odds 115

Odds can fluctuate, so always shop around for the best UFC odds across various sportsbooks.

Comparing Fighter Statistics

Significant Strikes Landed per Minute

  • Khaos Williams: 5.77
  • Carlston Harris: 2.93

Williams demonstrates a higher volume of significant strikes landed per minute, indicating a more aggressive striking approach compared to Harris.

Striking Accuracy

  • Khaos Williams: 39%
  • Carlston Harris: 49%

While Harris lands fewer strikes per minute, his striking accuracy is significantly higher, making his strikes more precise.

Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute

  • Khaos Williams: 5.33
  • Carlston Harris: 2.44

Williams absorbs more strikes per minute, which could be a vulnerability Harris might exploit with his precision.

Striking Defense

  • Khaos Williams: 42%
  • Carlston Harris: 53%

Harris has a superior striking defense, which could help him mitigate Williams’ aggressive striking.

Takedown Average per 15 Minutes

  • Khaos Williams: 0
  • Carlston Harris: 0.53

Harris has a slight edge in takedowns, potentially adding a dimension to his fight strategy that Williams lacks.

Takedown Accuracy

  • Khaos Williams: 0%
  • Carlston Harris: 29%

Harris again shows superiority in this area, indicating he might utilize wrestling to his advantage.

Takedown Defense

  • Khaos Williams: 80%
  • Carlston Harris: 55%

Williams has a better takedown defense, which could help him keep the fight standing where he excels.

Submission Average per 15 Minutes

  • Khaos Williams: 0
  • Carlston Harris: 0.8

Harris is more active in seeking submissions, adding another threat for Williams to consider.


ELO Rating

  • Khaos Williams: 1542.15
  • Carlston Harris: 1569.19

Harris holds a slight edge in the ELO rating, reflecting his overall competitive standing.

UFC Betting Model Prediction

ELO UFC Betting Model Probability

  • Khaos Williams: 46.12%
  • Carlston Harris: 53.88%

Logistic Regression UFC Betting Model Probability

  • Khaos Williams: 41.67%
  • Carlston Harris: 58.33%

Both the ELO and logistic regression models favor Carlston Harris, suggesting he has a higher probability of winning.

Importance of UFC Betting Model

The power of the UFC betting model from Underdog Chance member Eric is evident when the ELO model and the logistic regression model align, especially when the odds range between 1.50 and 3.0 (US odds -200 and +200). This agreement provides a strong signal for betting.

Recommended UFC Fight Pick

Based on Eric’s UFC Fight Predictions Betting Model Analysis, the recommended pick for this fight is:

Carlston Harris to win


This KHAOS WILLIAMS vs CARLSTON HARRIS UFC prediction serves as a valuable tool for bettors. Remember, while models and predictions are helpful, never blindly follow anyone’s sports picks. For accurate UFC picks, learn to use statistics in betting and stay updated with the latest MMA news. Always shop for the best UFC betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions. If you’re interested in learning how to bet like a pro, consider exploring sports betting courses to build your own betting model and become a long-term winner.

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